What are the most effective policies in reducing firearm ...

What are the most effective policies in reducing firearm ...

What are the most effective policies in reducing firearm violence? A report published in March, 2019 Michael Siegel and Claire Boine Boston University School of Public Health Agenda

Overview of firearm homicide Study methods WHAT, WHO, WHEN, WHY laws Findings Implications Red Flag laws Firearm laws and suicide

Overview of firearm homicide Study methods WHAT, WHO, WHEN, WHY laws Findings Implications Red Flag laws Firearm laws and suicide Firearm homicide rates (per 100,000)

New Hampshire: 0.7 (lowest) Virginia: 4.1 Louisiana: 9.8 (highest) U.S. average: 3.5 Firearm homicide breakdown Mass shootings 1% Committed

by a stranger 25% Committed by an 14% intimate partner 60% Committed by a family member or acquaintance

Overview of firearm homicide Study methods WHAT, WHO, WHEN, WHY laws Findings Implications Red Flag laws Firearm laws and suicide Methods Goal: assessing the impact of firearm laws on homicide rate

Collected data on 14 categories of laws in 50 states from 1991 Compared outcomes: homicide rates, stratified by firearm vs. non-firearm Difference in differences analysis with state and year fixed effects, with or without lagged dependent model

Linear model with logged homicide rates as outcome Count model with homicide counts as outcome Substitution test and falsification test Control variables Total population Population density Demographic data Proportion of Black

Proportion of Hispanic Proportion of young Proportion of males Crime data Per capita number of law enforcement officers Violent crime rate (assault, rape, and robbery) Property crime rate (burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft) Economic Data Poverty rate Unemployment Income inequality (Gini coefficient) Gun ownership (based on a proxy)

Overview of firearm homicide Study methods WHAT, WHO, WHEN, WHY laws Findings Implications Red Flag laws Firearm laws and suicide Laws regulating the use of firearms

WHAT WHO WHEN WHY Laws regulating what types of firearms are allowed and how many can be purchased Laws regulating

who may purchase or possess a firearm Laws regulating when firearms may be used Laws regulating why firearms may be purchased WHAT Laws regulating what types of firearms are allowed and how many can be purchased

Law Description States (2016) Assault weapon ban Laws ban the sale of both assault pistols and other assault weapons. CA, CT, MA, NJ, NY Large capacity ammunition magazine ban

Laws ban the sale of both assault pistol ammunition and other large capacity magazines. CA, CO, CT, MD, MA, NJ, NY One gun per month laws Buyers can purchase no more than one handgun per month, even if they have a concealed carry permit. In order to bypass this restriction, the buyer must be able to demonstrate an extraordinary need for the additional handgun. This may or may not apply to purchases from private sellers. CA, MD, NJ

WHO Laws regulating who may purchase or possess a firearm Law Description States (2016) Universal background checks Individuals must undergo a background check to purchase any type of firearm, either at the point of purchase or through a license/permit application.

CA, CO, CT, DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, WA May issue This provision refers to a "may issue" system, in which the state grants the issuing authority wide discretion to deny a concealed carry or a carry permit, for reasons such as a person lacking good character or failing to demonstrate a sufficient need to carry a concealed weapon. CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI Violent misdemeanour laws

Law prohibits gun possession by people who have committed violent misdemeanors punishable by less than one year of imprisonment. CA, CT, HI, MD Prohibitions based on commitment for mental illness, or substance abuse Firearm possession is prohibited for people who have been involuntarily committed for mental health treatment, or for people who are being treated for alcohol-related reasons, or for

people suffering from alcoholism. Prohibition based on age Age restriction (18 or 21) to buy a long gun or a hand-gun. AL. AZ, AK. CA, CT, DE, HI. IL, KS, ME, MD, MA, MN, MS, NE, NJ, NY, NF, OH, OR, PA, RI, SC, TN, UT, VA, WA, WV, WI AZ, CA, CT, DE, FL, HI, IA, LA, MD, MA, MN, MO, NE, NV, NJ, NY, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, TX, WA, WV, WI WHEN

Laws regulating when firearms may be purchased Law Absence of a Stand Your Ground Law Description Use of deadly force is not allowed to be a first resort in public. There is a duty to retreat (except if the person is in a vehicle). States (2016) AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, HI, ID, IL, IA, ME, MD, MA, MN, NE, NJ, NM, NY, ND, OH, OR, RI, VT, VA, WA, WI, WY

WHY Laws regulating why firearms may be used Law Firearm trafficking laws Description States (2016) The law prohibits the trafficking of firearms; that is, the purchase of firearm with the intent to re-sell the firearm, but without going CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, IL, MA, through a background check process. An exception for transfer MN, NY, ND, OH, UT, VA

to relatives is acceptable. Overview of firearm homicide Study methods WHAT, WHO, WHEN, WHY laws Findings Implications Red Flag laws Firearm laws and suicide

Finding 1: The laws regulating WHAT have no effect on overall homicide No effect: Assault weapons bans Large capacity ammunition magazine bans One gun per month Definition of an assault weapon (from the 1994 ban) Semi-automatic rifles able to accept detachable magazines and two or more of the following:

Definition of an assault weapon (from the 1994 ban) Semi-automatic rifles able to accept detachable magazines and two or more of the following: - Folding or telescoping stock Definition of an assault weapon (from the 1994 ban) Semi-automatic rifles able to accept detachable magazines and two or more of the following: - Folding or telescoping stock - Pistol grip

Definition of an assault weapon (from the 1994 ban) Semi-automatic rifles able to accept detachable magazines and two or more of the following: - Folding or telescoping stock - Pistol grip - Bayonet mount Definition of an assault weapon (from the 1994 ban) Semi-automatic rifles able to accept detachable magazines and two or more of the following: - Folding or telescoping stock

- Pistol grip - Bayonet mount - Flash hider or threaded barrel designed to Definition of an assault weapon (from the 1994 ban) Semi-automatic rifles able to accept detachable magazines and two or more of the following: - Folding or telescoping stock - Pistol grip - Bayonet mount - Flash hider or threaded barrel designed to Assault weapon ban: - Arbitrary definition

- Does not affect overall firearm homicide - Mostly affects recreational gun owners High capacity magazine ban: - Does not affect overall firearm homicide - Can make a difference in mass shooting cases Finding 2: The laws regulating WHO have a significant effect on homicide Effect of State Firearm Laws on Homicide Rates, 1991-2016 Laws with significant effect Type of state law

Violent misdemeanor May issue Universal background Difference in total homicide rate Difference in firearm homicide rate Type of regulation -19.3%

-26.7% Violent history -11.1% Enforcement of -15.0% prohibitor -9.6% -12.9% Violent history Laws checkswithout significant effect Age restrictions

Too narrow prohibitor Prohibitions based on commitment for mental Too broad prohibitor Relationship between number of laws in effect and total homicide Number of laws in effect No Laws One law Two laws Three laws

Percentage difference 95% Confidence Interval Reference group -10.1% -5.1% to -14.8% -22.3% -15.6% to -28.6% -34.6% -27.9% to -40.7%

Finding 3: The laws regulating WHEN and WHY have no effect on homicide No effect: Firearm trafficking laws Stand-your-ground laws Study limitation: not enough data on stand-your-ground laws over time

Overview of firearm homicide Study methods WHAT, WHO, WHEN, WHY laws Findings Implications Red Flag laws Firearm laws and suicide Implication 1: Past violence is the strongest predictor of violence Type of state law

Violent misdemeanor May issue Universal background Difference in total homicide rate Difference in firearm homicide rate Type of regulation -19.3%

-26.7% Violent history -11.1% Enforcement of -15.0% prohibitor -9.6% -12.9% Violent history Implication 2: Mental health is not a predictor of violence Prohibitions based on

commitment for mental illness, alcoholism, or drug abuse Too broad prohibitor Mental health firearm policies: - Ineffective - Too broad - May prevent lawful citizens from acquiring guns - May prevent gun owners from seeking treatment Implication 3: Prohibitors must be

combined with enforcement policies Intimate Partner Homicide: From Diez, Kurland, Rothman et al. (2017) Prohibitor: States with a law prohibiting domestic abusers from possessing firearms have no significant reduction in intimate partner homicide Prohibitor + Enforcement: States with a law requiring domestic abusers to relinquish their firearms have a 14% reduction in firearm intimate partner homicide.

Overview of firearm homicide Study methods WHAT, WHO, WHEN, WHY laws Findings Implications Red Flag laws Firearm laws and suicide Red Flag Laws Also called extreme risk protection order

- Too recent to include in our study - Evidence that they are associated with lower suicide rates - Hypothesized to be associated with lower homicide rates (WHO-type law) Overview of firearm homicide Study methods WHAT, WHO, WHEN, WHY laws

Findings Implications Red Flag laws Firearm laws and suicide Firearm Suicide Availability of firearms seems to impact suicide in at least two ways: - Reduces the time period between first suicidal thoughts and suicide - Increase lethality of suicide Firearm Suicide Some laws that do not affect the homicide rates affect the suicide rates:

- Prohibitions based on commitment for mental illness, alcoholism, or drug abuse - Prohibitions based on age Study Limitations - Not enough data on most recent laws - Impossible to look at domestic violence laws - Laws reducing overall homicides are not the same as laws targeting specific types of violence (mass shootings) Conclusion The most effective laws in reducing overall homicides regulate WHO can access firearms: - Violent misdemeanor laws - May issue laws

- Universal background checks Red Flag Laws are likely to have an effect Other laws are effective in reducing suicides: - Prohibition based on mental health and substance abuse - Age-based prohibitions - Red Flag laws Thank you [email protected]

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