Updates Trump to declare a national emergency at the same time as signing the interim budget bill. This will allow him to redirect funds to pay for the wall or garner unused money so far Republicans not happy because of the precedent it sets. A future Democrat President could invoke it for Climate Change. Lawmakers seeking to block the president have two paths one in Congress, the other in the courts.
Democrats could get a majority in the H of R to vote this down and may even get a few Republicans to defect in the Senate. Trump could then issue a presidential veto. Congress could then over turn that but it would take a two thirds majority of both houses. The money would come from either Defence or disaster relief and could use troops to help construction. Mike Pence criticises Europe over their reluctance to sanction Iran. The UK, France and Germany do not attend. No peace in the Middle East while Iran is there? Or is Iran necessary for a peace?
Trump I deserve the Nobel Peace prize for North Korea and Syria. Brexit updates
The Brexit clock keeps ticking away. Theresa May loses another vote in the House Of Commons. Because many n her own party abstained The EU is not ready to compromise as they assume if they do Mrs may will come back repeatedly for a bit more to keep people in her won party happy till march 29. They see the UK arguing, debating and negotiating with itself again - as it has done so often during the Brexit process - rather than engaging with Brussels. There will be a meeting of EU leaders on march the 21st.
Little enthusiasm in the EU for extending the time on Article 50 but that probably will happen. Frustration and despondency with the Brexit process is widespread, and EU leaders (think Spain with the Catalan issue and wobbly minority government, France with the "yellow vest" protest movement; Italy in recession again and with its infighting coalition government) face other dilemmas screaming for their attention. Brexit updates
Why do people oppose the deal? There are a broad range of complaints, many of which claim the deal fails to give back to the UK control of its own affairs from the EU. One of the biggest sticking points has been over what happens at the Irish border. The backstop arrangement. Both the EU and UK want to avoid the return of guard posts and checks. 7 Labour Party MPS resign to sit as independents as protest over Corbyn leadership and his refusal to back a second referendum.
3 leave the Conservatives this morning as well. US elections - Ocasio-Cortez too young to run at 29 the Democrats go left the Republicans call it socialism
Elisabeth Warren proposes a wealth tax of 2% for those over $50 million and 3% over $1 billion (every year). 74% support among Democrats and even 50% among Republicans. Green New Deal - would centre around creating new jobs and lessening inequality. Aiming to virtually eliminate US greenhouse gas pollution in a decade, -radical compared with other climate proposals. It would require massive government spending. Carbon neutral by 2040. Pelosi a sceptic. Currently the US gets 17% of its electricity from renewables and 20% from nuclear.
It would also aim for 100% renewable energy and includes a job guarantee program to assure a living wage job to every person who wants one. It would seek to mitigate deeply entrenched racial, regional and gender-based inequalities in income and wealth. Strong public support (81%) but little support from Congress. Would the voters pay for it? This is going to be the New Deal, the Great Society, the moon shot, the civilrights movement of our generation, (Bernie Sanders and Alexandra Ocasio Cortez). The US Vs China trade wars and soft power Wodonga U3A Feb 20, 2019 Introduction
2019 should be a year of celebration; it marks 40 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China. Bilateral trade and investment between the two countries has grown
exponentially from $5 billion in 1980 to $710 billion in 2017; student exchange and tourism numbers have soared; and peace has been maintained in the Asia-Pacific. Yet, over the past several years, trade tensions have risen to an all-time high; there is talk of military conflict over Taiwan and in the South China Sea; concerns have flared in each country over the political influence of the other and the two countries have launched an all out competition to define the values underlying the international order. Asia changes
In the 1960s South Korea was one of the worlds poorest countries Now it is home to Samsung, Hyundai etc. In 1993 Infosys started in India now worth $3bn 1993 Qatar begins small regional airline that now owns 200 aircraft and
40,000 staff. 1993 FA Cup final. All but 3 players from the UK. 25 years later only 6 out of 27 were from the UK. Aston Villa, Bromwich Albion, Birmingham all bought by the Chinese as well as AC and Inter Milan. Manchester owned by billionaire from the UAE, Everton by Iran, Paris Saint Germain by Qatar, Arsenal by an Uzbek, Chelsea by a Russian and QPR by Malaysian magnate. 1993 Jurassic park comes out. Legendary Entertainment sold to the Chinese along with the Hoyts and Odeon theatre chains. In 2001 Chinas GDP was 39% that of the USA. In 2018 it is 114%. Millions now out of poverty and Middle Class driving airline travel boom.
Chinese tourism China changes and calls the shots
Prada opens 7 new stores in Xian alone in 2018. Starbucks up to restaurant 1000. Calling the shots on Chinas terms. Facebook data on local servers and Google develops Dragonfly search engine for China that filters out human rights sites etc. Google and twitter often blocked. China development bank in 2015 announces that it has 900 projects on the books and reserves of $890 bn. 80 Countries are now signed up to it. US also had plans for a Silk Road with Central Asian connections but no money was forthcoming. China offers the world cash, hope and a way out. Chinese lead the worlds connections as the US withdraws.
China if you want to get rich build roads first. Poor infrastructure has been what has held countries back. Laos from land locked to land linked (Vientiane to Kunnin). Poverty now 1% - China has more internet users, homeowners and even billionaires. Beijing traffic 1978 and now Shanghai then and now
Prada opening Beijing Where it all began
In 1984 three quarters of China live in extreme poverty. Decades of turmoil preceded it. The state decided where everyone worked, what factories made and what cost it would be sold. Market forces unleashed. Factories still had to meet quotas but could sell surplus at a cost decided by the factory. Undercut the planned economy. Not now just catching up but moving ahead of the rest in the face of US hostility. Not modernisation as we know it. Prosperity should have led to political freedoms and democracy. Did not happen repression but still innovation. A rigid bureaucracy but again
still innovation. Reform but not democratisation learned from Russia and Gorbachev. A reinvention that the Russians never managed. Russia liberalises the economy and politics China only the economy. The Party must hold the centre. Fears about Gorby influence Tien An Mien and Gorby and the Red Guards. The beginnings of Chinas reformation
So factories entered the private market . Farmers could sell their own crops even if the state still owned the land. After the Cultural revolution Deng Xiao Peng sent officials on a study tour of the US. Education opened up to all. Government incompetence cleaned up. Term limits set for officials as well as mandatory retirement. Easier to get rid of some. Accountability now set into the system.
Concrete targets set but it did lead to corruption as well as tainted food and medicines. Bureaucrats move into entrepreneurial business. Democracy movement after Tien an mien contributed to its ranks. Now private sector accounts for 60% of the economic output, 80% of the jobs and 90% of the new jobs. Bureaucrats stay out of the way. Deng said look overseas but Xi said be self sufficient. Xi son of a high official who served Deng. Let in foreign investment. Tapped into a wave of globalisation. Investment from Taiwan and Chinese enclaves overseas (HK and Singapore). Dangerous considering then China was as isolated as North Korea is now. The rise of the Chinese Middle Class
They have forgotten Tien An Mien. Democracy not high on the priorities list.
Economic boom leads to consumerism and a growing domestic market to offset reliance on exports. 300 million in the middle class? Can travel and send children overseas for their education. Trust and belief in Government priorities very high. Taiwan jump started capitalism and plugged China into the global economy. opening up strengthened party leadership rather than weakening it. China a model for a democratic autocracy? Much more sensitive to public opinion particularly over party corruption and pollution. The beginnings of Chinas reformation
Houses and private farming side by side One Belt One road Khorgoz in Kazakhstan Piraeus one of 12 ports in Europe China owns How overseas infrastructure projects help China
In Pakistan economic corridor wind farms and water treatment plants. High speed rail between Karachi and Peshawar. 5 times the freight, double the passengers and half the time on 1000 mile journey. And why not? Chinese economy shifts from Manufacturing to services which leads to excess Metals, steel and cement in the system.
Sent out to Asia which is hungry for infrastructure upgrades. Opportunities for Chinese companies that get 89% of the contracts and takes pressure of the East Coast populations. China also exports the workers. China sets the standards. Security concerns over Xinjiang which is why it is a focus. Coal and natural gas fields. Uighur re education camps and mass surveillance. Pakistan Economic corridor The proposed Isthmus of Kra Canal
And in Malaysia Another one like Malaysias forest city? Highways built and flats being bought off the plan Debt and convergence
Focus is on the maritime Silk road as well as rail costs 5 times as much and ULCV can carry 10,000 containers each. China a model for Africa 30,000 scholarships in Africa. Silk roads are everywhere Venezuela bailed out by China in exchange for 700,000 barrels of oil daily. Debt a problem. Malaysia and Tonga renege. Hambantota in Sri lanka the airport that Air Lanka no longer flies to. Angolans now have $754 debt per head to finance Chinese loans. Djibouti the strategic part of the Western Indian Ocean. Choke point between the Gulf of Aden and the Suez Canal. 30% of Global shipping goes
through there. Japan, The UAE, China, Turkey, Russia and the Saudis all doing the same. China in Egypt
A new administrative capital in the desert east of Cairo built by Chinese companies and financed up to 85% by the Chinese government. Parallel to the expansion in investment, there has been an increasing flow of Chinese tourists coming to Egypt. Their numbers more than doubled last year to 300,000 from some 130,000 the year before. Egypt loves them as they are not as volatile as European tourists. New city does not have name yet other than NAC (Sisi city?) but will house 6.5 million Egyptians and take the strain off Cairo (19m). It should be ready by June 2019. New cities are all the rage. The future of the many buildings that make up Egypts sprawling state infrastructure, mostly situated on prime real estate in central Cairo,
remains uncertain. Will it help pay for the new city? Egypt owns the Suez Canal say no more......... Location, location, location China and the choke points the string of pearls Real time shipping around the world ULCVs Choke Point - Hormuz
Choke point Malacca Straits Traffic through the choke points Shortcuts back to China Rivalry with the US
Dont know how to play Trump unpredictability and shouting matches between Mnuchin and Navarro. No plans removal of Mattis the last adult. US tariffs mean higher prices for US consumers who want cheap Chinese products Remember that China buys US Bonds (their debt) so that the US can buy chinse goods. US not interested in reform from within. They leave agreements loudly and
bitterly. As is their right. NATO did not pay enough and China was stealing IP on a massive scale. But it is the manner G7 2018 leaves two lollies for Merkel dont say I never give you anything". Always on the look out for enemies and targets. Unnecessary bad treatment of Merkel, May and Trudeau. America first a slogan but not a plan. The world is more complex. 20% of Apple income comes from sales in China. Boeing lose massive airline deal. US companies do well from OBOR. GE $2.3bn in sales. Caterpillar and Honeywell also profit. The US did not see it coming
In past decades it was hoped that China would become more like the US. The US helped China into the WTO. No more convergence is no longer possible. Mexico and Canada may be easily pushed around but not China.
1996 Clinton show of force in the Taiwan straits puts and end 4to Chinese missile tests. What Trump needs is strategy not just tactics. Need s old allies as well as new ones (e.g. Vietnam and India with whom it has growing naval cooperation). The US does have friends while China does not. What sparked it? In 2006 the US economy was 5 times the size of Chinas in 2017 it was down to just 60%. 2008 GFC the US badly hit but China much less so. China sees a chance and takes it. Chinas economy is growing 20 time faster than the US and the state is investing heavily in high tech like AI and quantum computing. China is seen as looking to world rather than just regional dominance. The US fears that time is on Chinas side.
Two starbucks lollies for Merkel Unintended consequences
Russia sanctions puts up price of oil. 50% of Russian income is from oil and gas so they benefit enormously while US motorists pay more for petrol and home heating. The US courts India to contain China India wary of China but in the grip of the Russians and have been for many years. Not keen on Trump overtures as they see him as unreliable. I am a fan of Hindu says trump. Pressure on Iran over sanctions and withdrawal of the JCPOA only serves to unite Iranians. Germany warned to stop trading with Iran or face consequences. Nike pulls out, French Total loses massive gas development deal and so do Airbus and Boeing. Turkey still buys gas from Iran.
As a result China moves in and benefits. Signed up for OBOR. China, Turkey and Iran are attuned to a changing world. The US is fighting it. EU also fractured _ Brexit etc. US warns that countries with Allies always win out in the end. That is what China is doing. China hits back A cyber blitz against Australian web traffic after the failure of the APEC meeting in Port Moresby. China develops the FD21 long range anti ship missile designed to destroy carriers or at least keep them well away from the South China Sea. Aggressive posturing over over flight rights in the SCS. China trying to control the choke points. The Kra Canal and the Suez?
Building $80bn second capital in Egypt. First overseas base in Djibouti. Further pushback China could cut off medical drugs that the US is nearly totally dependent on. Does not buy any soybeans from the US in November none Hurts the farmers in Iowa.? Beijing has moved closer to Moscow and Tehran since Trump entered the Oval Office, partially thwarting US efforts to isolate those countries. China is Irans biggest energy customer, spending around $15 Billion a year on crude oil. Beijing doesnt want that to change anytime soon. It buts more Russian fighters and has relaxed trading with North Korea. China feels that Trump will not be there forever. China and the centrally planned economy
Communism has its benefits. Decisions are effected much more quickly, the internal market is huge and the
middle class is growing. Goods quality is much better and innovation is king. Control over the economy they can set the value of their own currency. A lower currency makes exports more competitive. 10% Trump tariffs can be offset 10% reduction in the Yuan. But falling Yuan could mean that Chinese money leaves China. If the US raises interest rates as it just has money floods into the US. In China that would raise the cost of borrowing just when the economy is slowing down. China might then have to tap into foreign exchange reserves as it is doing now. Trade war China to try and replace US imports particularly hi tech and soybean meal for the pigs.
China and its obsession with pork How could China retaliate
For its part, Washington misjudges as well. It sees Chinas economy as vulnerable and doesnt appreciate that China can wage a trade war with weapons other than tariffs. It can play a nationalism card so that it becomes unpatriotic for Chinese citizens to buy McDonalds burgers, drink Coke or wear Nike shoes. Safety inspections can close American hotels; tax investigations can tie American firms in knots; and customs delays can hold up parts and idle Americanowned factories. Chinese tourism to the U.S. can slow, students can be directed to Australian universities over American ones and rare earth minerals needed by American companies may develop shortages. China can further ease sanctions on North Korea, buy more oil from Iran
or become more aggressive in the South China Sea. It can cancel Chinese trademarks owned by Ivanka Trump that might get the presidents attention and it can dump U.S. Treasury bonds. The Tariff War
The US has imposed three rounds of tariffs on Chinese products last year, totalling $250bn worth of goods. The first two rounds placed 25% tariffs on $50bn worth of imports from China, and Beijing retaliated in kind. Washington delivered a sharp escalation in the trade conflict in September with another set of tariffs, this time on Chinese goods worth $200b. Trump has warned even more could be on the way. Smaller Asian countries further down the supply chain could also suffer. 30% of the value of the goods China exports to America originates from
third-party countries. Ultimately, China may not have as much firepower as the US to retaliate, given the US buys much more from China than it sells to them. This could mean it would find alternative ways to fight back such as making life difficult for American companies in China by increasing red-tape. The tariffs have been sold to Americans as a means of forcing multinational companies to make their products in the United States, abandoning China, Mexico and other low-cost centres of industry. But the tariffs are threatening jobs that are already in the US. Trump and tariffs
Why Apple cannot do without China the Mac Book Pro Trump build them in America.
They tried that - In China, Apple relied on factories that can produce vast quantities of custom screws on short notice. In Texas it turned out the screw suppliers were could not. The screw shortage was one of several problems that postponed sales of the computer for months. Quote from Apple In the U.S., you could have a meeting of tooling engineers and Im not sure we could fill the room, In China, you could fill multiple football fields China is its biggest market - Apple said it would miss earnings expectations for the first time in 16 years, mostly because of slowing iPhone sales in China. Tariffs would make matters worse. The final assembly is the most labour-intensive part of building the iPhone,
and its location often determines a products country of origin for tariffs. Base rate in China is $US 3.15 per hour. What can the US do?
Mike Pompeo offers their version - $113 million Trump can do to China what President Ronald Reagan claimed to do to the Soviet Union: confront and out-spend militarily until it collapses. The present US-China confrontation is nothing like the US-Soviet confrontation during the Cold War. During the Cold War security issues could be separated from economic and trade issues. There was simply so little trade with the communist bloc that it could be ignored. China, on the other hand, has emerged as an economic powerhouse and the West is now dependent on it.
China is kick starting an Asian Century. They will allow Iran and Turkey to revive dreams of a glorious past. Accentuate differences rather than remove them. China recycles its surpluses, moves low grade production off to others and secures raw materials. China is not adapting to a new environment but creating it. What the US tried to do and should have done.... The first is to remove China from the centre of the global supply chain. Heres one example of Beijings importance: Apple has around 27 China-based suppliers, mainly in the electrical components sector. The second goal is to make multinational corporations wary about doing
business in China. Trump pressures companies to make components in America. A serious consequence of ruining China could be a world wide recession. Trump ignored advice that he should aggressively take on China under the World Trade Organisation for theft of intellectual property. Most of the developed world would have joined in. He ignored advice to stay in the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris Climate Accord. He ignored advice not to impose the steel tariff. The advice was that it would harm US industry that consumed steel especially cars, boats and pipelines while not creating any steel jobs. But he was probably right to suggest a removal of troops from Afghanistan and South Korea but he did not follow through. a century ago a US government commission headed by US Army engineers built
the Panama Canal. Why shouldnt the US join Thailand and China in building the Kra canal? However the US will still probably be predominant
the US Navy currently operates 83 destroyers and cruisers that can be considered advanced (that is, with phased-array radar systems and modern air defence missiles), while Asia-Pacific navies can count only 31 a total that includes not only China but also US allies Japan, South Korea, and Australia. US-aligned powers in Asia are, in concert, powerful enough to present a formidable obstacle to any Chinese attempt at naval dominance. Although Beckley makes a strong case, it is far from clear whether those countries interests in presenting a united counterweight to China outweigh their individual interests in maintaining friendly relations with Beijing. China is hemmed in geographically. Americas bases around the Pacific
have given the US Navy enormous freedom of movement across the high seas, which China may never enjoy. Anti ship weapons while deterring US carriers also makes it hard for China. Or will SE Asia and the US simply give in because it is too hard? Why the US will still be predominant in the near future The new Manus base 53 Lombrum naval base
54 China and the strategic balance
In simple terms the aim of the US is to stop China from becoming number one in the world. 2018 when the US shifted from peaceful coexistence to a new form of confrontation after having been distracted by 9/11 and the Afghan/Iraq wars for over a decade. The China issue is now front and centre The Pence speech at APEC. A more significant shift than the global war on terror? This is a bipartisan response in Washington not just a Trump initiative. As far as the US is concerned If the US allows China to dominate the hitech world economy then it will become a subordinate power. However US response is not well thought out emotive, reactive ideas not an integrated response. For countries in the region their main economic relationship is with China. The US needs to be careful about forcing nations into making a choice,
because they are likely to choose China. Australia cannot simply choose one side or another. And what if Trump backtracks after we support him all the way? Conflict scenarios Taiwan straits and the Spratlys How that conflict could play out China, Europe and Russia
Czech Rep wants to be China's "unsinkable aircraft carrier" in Europe. Greece and Hungary support move to block UN criticising China's human rights and SCS. China does not want to destabilise the EU by backing populist, xenophobic movements. It wants Europe to stay open, stable and available for business. China stands by global accords.
China now owns Nuclear power stations, Airports like Heathrow, Peugeot, Citroen and Pirelli even France's Bordeaux vineyards. Swedish Opposition parties now in favour of Sweden joining NATO? China also investing in Israeli technology - accounts for one third of all new technology there. Russia on the sidelines? A junior partner? China moves into the Russian Far East. Russia in the far East a decline as China moves in The Russian Far East is becoming Chinas safety valve, much like Mexico lets off population pressures with migration into the United States. 5M Chinese?
Things are not going that well with Russia either.... Made in China 2025 The Made in China 2025 plan begun in 2015, aims to break Chinas reliance on foreign technology and pull its hi-tech industries up to Western levels. The idea is to replacing imports with local products and building global champions able to take on the Western tech giants in cutting-edge technologies. Chinas Redcore browser a hit until they discovered it had Google Chrome code. the plan aimed to increase the overall domestic market share of Chinese tech suppliers to 70 per cent by 2025 as well as to cut operating costs, production
cycles and product defect rates by 50 per cent and to establish 40 innovation centres. China vulnerable to Western Tech dominance note 7 year ban on telecom hardware provider ZTE nearly sent it broke. China does not have the core technologies yet. China not unique - similar initiatives in other countries, such as Japans Connected Industries and Germanys Industry 4.0 programmes, introduced before 2015. And the US has had its own plan to advance tech manufacturing and competitiveness: the Advanced Manufacturing Partnership (AMP) Dyson but it might as well be anyone else
Is a different China emerging? For the past few decades, China has appeared to be a net positive force in
world affairs. Sure, Beijing violated trade agreements and escalated regional tensions. But the Chinese lowered our cost of living and expanded prosperity worldwide. But a few things have now changed. First, instead of liberalizing, the Chinese regime has become more aggressive and repressive. the Chinese have changed their economic focus so that their economy can directly replace the US. The regimes Made in China 2025 policy is an attempt to go up the value chain and dominate high-tech industries like aerospace, robotics and biotech. China is stealing intellectual property. is trying to seize the controlling centres of the new tech economy. If China can set the standard for 5G communication and dominate artificial intelligence and quantum computing,
then it will be able to write the rules. the Chinese challenge is no longer just economic; its moral and intellectual. Its a clash of two value systems. And many people around the globe now believe that Beijings values are better. 5G who will control it? Huawei V the US
What is 5G? Faster wireless communication of data. Being able to send and receive that much data so quickly opens new opportunities for augmented and virtual reality systems, as well as automation. For instance, self-driving cars could communicate with each other, road signs, traffic signals, guardrails and other elements human drivers simply see. That would require an additional technical leap reducing what is called latency, or the delay between when a signal is sent and when its received, to 1 millisecond. (If a networks data rate is how wide a garden
hose is, latency is how long it takes from the moment the tap is turned on until water comes out the end.) In addition, 5G systems offer the possibility of providing reliable connections to massive numbers of wireless devices simultaneously. This could enable a huge expansion of the number of internet of things devices in use, monitoring nutrients in soil for farmers, package locations for shipping companies and vital signs for hospital patients, for instance The benefits of 5G networks Why 5G will be the next source of competition
US, Australia and New Zealand (Japan?) ban Huawei from being involved in the
development of 5G networks. For security reasons. new 5G apps are likely to fuel the future smart cities and digital economies, predicted to be the next key driver of economic growth in the much-touted Fourth Industrial Revolution. As a result, the superpower that gains a first-mover advantage in resolving the many technological, political, and policy challenges and successfully deploys the 5G network is likely to gain a significant economic edge over the other. This makes 5G implementation a zero-sum economic game as viewed from an Chinese or American lens rather than a win-win situation where technological advancements and solutions are shared for mutual gain. Whichever superpower that successfully deploys 5G can claim to replicate its model in other countries and exert geopolitical, economic, and technological
influence over these states. It is only a matter of time before the US and China separately gather allies to take a position on incorporating Huawei or ZTEs technology in 5G networks. States that have heretofore been sitting on the fence and unwilling to commit to either Chinese or American policy on the matter could be forced to take a stand under intense diplomatic pressure. Mobile tech and Chinas growing market share China going its own way
China is now reportedly leading the world in developing a hack-proof communications system based on the spookily mysterious workings of quantum physics. You can't hack it because there is no signal to intercept, just paired atoms placed far apart that move in perfect sync, with no detectable connection. China is also rapidly developing its own GPS system of satellites so that it will not be dependent on US GPS.
China is also developing its own internet. Beijing not only wants to keep sovereign control of its web and its people, it also wants to be able to survive a US internet embargo. A model for others? A regional counter to China
Japan is a reminder that China remains a long way from becoming an American-style power. It is attempting to reconstitute an informal and implicitly anti-Chinese alliance known as the quad, which includes India, Australia and the United States. Japan is matching Chinas rise with its own resurgence, leveraging its economy the worlds third-largest to build an independently powerful military .
Even its sole ally, North Korea, is increasingly independent. Its nuclear and missile tests often appear timed to humiliate Beijing, and give Chinas adversaries like Japan an excuse to build up their militaries. Many Asian leaders are eluding the great powers by hedging between them nb the Philippines. Vietnam naval facilities for the US but Arms from Russia. Resisting both the Chinese and the Americans. But the region is shifting its focus And the trade balance is shifting
What if it doesn't keep going? What if the rise of China is ephemeral? This has been done before - about the Soviet Union in the 1950s and 60s; about Japan in the 70s and 80s; and about the European Union in the 90s and 00s. Brazil in 2009. Some 46% of rich Chinese wish to emigrate mainly to the US. How reliable are Chinese economy growth figures? borrowing having quadrupled in seven years by one estimate. National debt is estimated at $US2.5 trillion. During the 2008 financial crisis, Beijing ordered local governments to build roads, bridges and other public works to keep the economy pumping and workers in jobs. It set off a borrowing binge.
Chinas concerted shift toward an economy driven by domestic consumption, and less reliant on debt-intensive heavy industry and exports, is also contributing to the easing of the debt habit. Chinas high savings rate helps, as does a long run of current-account surpluses, which makes the country a net lender to other nations rather than a net borrower. Can they grow their way out of trouble? The outlook for Brazil in 2009 -not always accurate And what the rivalry means for us
In the past we have pretended that the competition between the US and China did not exist. Manus base and the possible move of the Australian embassy in Israel puts us
firmly in the US camp? Do we have to go all the way with the US? Government says that China is not a threat (Bishop and Turnbull in 2017) but intelligence services say otherwise cyber attacks. Foreign Policy white paper 2017 focuses on managing the tension between the US and China and protecting trade routes and sea lanes. Australia needs strong trade and business partners as well as a strong military alliance to protect trade flows. The current dilemma for Australia - its top trading partner, China, is locked in an intensifying rivalry with, Australias security patron. While there has also been a clampdown on Chinese investments in Australian real estate, ports and farmland, Canberra is unsure about Trumps
commitment to the region. Two strategies - Regarding China, keep the focus on business ties. As far as the US we look to expand its security relationship with the U.S. to include regional allies such as Japan and India. A more regional alliance. We have a problem... At this point, Australia is looking at the possibility of choosing between security and economy. Ultimately, it will side with the United States for two reasons. First, when a country is forced to choose between the two, security will trump economy. This is particularly true for Australia, where security plays an integral role in ensuring the health of the economy.
The other reason is that while China plays a major role in Australias economy, Canberra has the worlds top economy (U.S.), and third- and fifthlargest economies (Japan and the U.K.) to fall back on, not to mention the budding security relationship with India, whose economy ranks seventh. Traditionally our major security provider was also our major trading partner not anymore. But........ Last week hacked into Australian Government servers. Why did we not say anything. We frequently condemn Russia for doing the same. Because we are on our own this time no posse to help us? A bad slide but...... Is China vulnerable?
Worried about Afghanistan talks with the Taliban. Pakistan does something about the Swat Valley a new special security force especially for the region.
Malaysia reneges the first of many? Bad loans PNG? Taking over bad assets - the Sri Lankan Port is now theirs but is it of any use? Too far too fast (Deng would not have done it). Over reaction in Xinjiang province the incarceration in re-education camps in the Uighur territories. Making enemies of Turkey and Canada. Local resentment Kenyans accuse Chinese of racism and in South America local vegetable plots are razed for giant farms that are Chinese owned. Bad behaviour of Chinese over seas As it expands it becomes more repressive Facebook, Internet access, Social credit index. Takes the edge of the good will created by soft power?
The pushback against China The APEC summit ended without a joint communiqu and it wasnt the United States that was the troublemaker like at last years G7 meeting. It
was China that was unable to accept the language prepared for the statement, embarrassing and frustrating host Papua New Guinea. According to the Wall Street Journal, the troublesome line was the following: We agreed to fight protectionism including all unfair trade practices. That China couldnt accept that language is telling. Xis attempt to pitch himself as the defender of globalisationa project that began with his trip to Davos earlier this yearis running into roadblocks. For the United States, this presents an opportunity to corner China and capitalize on growing regional scepticism of Beijings intentions. The debt trap Sri Lankas main port.
Problems at home? Does it matter if China becomes the world power?
we cannot take the superiority of Western, democratic systems for granted. Chinese people have more trust in their governing institutions than Americans do. In a 2008 study, 78 percent of Chinese said their government responds to their needs, compared with 33 percent of Japanese and 21 percent of South Koreans. Chinese society has much more trust and social capital than American society. China, has the second-highest level of social trust in the world, after the Netherlands. A loss of confidence in the US? Free-market Republicans used to fight against industrial policy heavy government intervention to support key sectors until their dying breaths. But the Chinese threat is already fundamentally changing
thinking across the board. does it matter? Will other countries see the Chinese way as the better way? Certainly it seems that the Chinese do. Trust in government from Indian paper 81 Reading Guide Reading Guide