Session II. Long-Term Aspects Murray Sherwin, Chair, New Zealand Productivity Commission 8th Annual NBP Conference on the Future of the European Economy (CoFEE), 26 October 2018 Setting the scene Figure 1: Budget 2018 fiscal outlook Per capita incomes stuck below the top half of the OECD
Figure 2: GDP per capita relative to the top half of the OECD Source: OECD.Stat Key themes
Economic geography Competition intensity Innovation diffusion Capital v labour intensity Industry structure Public sector productivity Coping with climate change
Capital formation below the average of top OECD countries Figure 5: Gross fixed non-residential capital formation (per person in labour force) Source: OECD.Stat Resources getting stuck in low productivity firms Figure 6: Share of resources by productivity quartile
Source: Meehan (2018) Further information [email protected] www.productivity.govt.nz Twitter: @Nzprocom Stalling capital deepening in the measured sector
Table 1: Measured sector productivity growth over growth cycles Growth Cycle Labour productivity Multifactor productivity Contribution
0.8 0.5 0.7 Source: Statistics New Zealand Low productivity levels and growth Figure 3: Average growth in labour productivity and GDP per hour worked
Source: OECD.Stat Recent population growth driven by migration Figure 4: Contributions to population growth Source: Statistics New Zealand Disconnected and stuck Figure 7: Drivers of a low productivity equilibrium
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