Spatializing tornado warning lead-time: Risk perception and ...

Spatializing tornado warning lead-time: Risk perception and ...

The effect of uncertainty information and graphic design on decisionmaking Dr. Kim Klockow AMS/UCAR Congressional Science Fellow American Association for the Advancement of Science Washington, D.C. NOAA Social Science in Weather Research Grant Program Motivation: Research for Operations

NOAA Social Science in Weather Research Grant Program Motivation: Research for Operations What might the effects be of each of these ways of depicting tornado risk? From Iowa State University Current warning technique: Warn-on-detection

From Stensrud et al. 2009 Future alerting technique: Warn-on-forecast NOAA Social Science in Weather Research Grant Program 3 Motivation: Research for Operations

Specific questions: -How does warning length influence the perception of risk within and outside the warning? -How does the inclusion of uncertainty information change the perception of risk over the warning space? -How do symbolic risk elements, such as color, influence the perception of risk? In general: What kinds of warning policies might we consider targeting in the future? NOAA Social Science in Weather Research Grant Program

4 Experimental method Choice scenario Participants decide whether or not to order an aircraft hangar to shut down operations and protect for a tornado Cost/loss: $3000 to protect, $6000 loss if a tornado hits and you failed to protect Should protect if the probability is 50% or above

Simplified scenario compared to real-life: No dynamic choices considered. Sampling method: Web interface, census-balanced panel provided by SSI* N = 5564 participants NOAA Social Science in Weather Research Grant Program 5 Decision experiments

Half of the sample received simple verbal guidance: A storm either had a high or low chance of producing a tornado. Verbal guidance followed the decision criterion assigned in the experiment (50%). 7 Decision experiments Effect of distance and boundary inclusion/exclusion

NOAA Social Science in Weather Research Grant Program 8 Decision experiments Effect of verbal guidance NOAA Social Science in Weather Research Grant Program

9 Decision experiments Effect of probabilistic information NOAA Social Science in Weather Research Grant Program 10 Decision experiments

NOAA Social Science in Weather Research Grant Program 11 Implications of experimental findings for warning practice Lengthening deterministic warnings Tradeoffs: Implications near and far from the warning

Including verbal information or probabilities Positive indications, with some caveats Using colors Symbolic meanings translate to risk perception NOAA Social Science in Weather Research Grant Program 12 Conclusions

New representations of risk could potentially change the way risk spaces are perceived Forecasters can shape perceptions through use of warning length; visual, verbal and numeric expressions of uncertainty More work is needed to connect findings from experiments to real-world behaviors Response is more complex than simple yes/no protection decisions at a given point in time Real-world studies: sheltering largely in the last minutes,

preparation begins much sooner NOAA Social Science in Weather Research Grant Program 13 Open for questions/discussion! 14

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