Population Issues in India in the foreseeable future

Population Issues in India in the foreseeable future

Population Issues in India in the foreseeable future Purushottam M Kulkarni Workshop on Indias Population:Emerging Dimensions Under the auspices of Speakers Research Initiative (SRI) February 7, 2019 Population growth in the last century Mortality declined- the death rate fell steadily after 1921 and steeply after 1951- but fertility remained moderately high leading to rapid population growth. Population increased from 24 crores in 1901 to 103 crores in 2001 and then to 121 crores by 2011; the population size more than quadrupled through the twentieth century. The rate of growth was very high after 1951 and over two percent per annum during 1961-1991. There were fears of population explosion and the situation appeared alarming with some panicky reaction; neo-Malthusian policy measures were introduced . But fertility also began to show decline, especially after 1970. The demographic transition has been in progress. The Total Fertility Rate (the average number of births a woman would have in life time if she survives through the childbearing ages) has fallen to 2.3 in 2016 and has gone below 2 in many states covering about half the national population. Mortality decline has been continuing; the estimated life expectancy is about 70 years for females and 68 years for males for the recent period. There is hardly any talk of population explosion now and fears on population explosion are rarely heard. Population size and growth in India, 19012011 140 3 120 2.5 100 2

80 1.5 60 1 40 0.5 20 0 0 -0.5 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 Population (in crores) Exp. Growth rate (%) Declines in Crude Birth and Death Rates (per 1000), 1901-2011 60 50 40 CBR CDR 30 20 10 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

What is likely to happen in the foreseeable future? Population Projections India is approaching replacement level low fertility and mortality. The growth rate has already slowed down and is projected to fall further. Various projections show that further growth would not be large. Indias population may reach a level close to 170 crores, perhaps lower, in the 2060s and then begin to decline slowly. Principal results of projections for India, up to 2061 Population Size (in crores) Year Male Female Age distribution (%) Persons 0-14 15-64 CBR 65+ CDR RNI (per 1000) (per 1000) (annual %) 2001 53 50 103

35.4 59.8 4.8 25.4 8.3 1.71 2011 62 59 121 30.9 63.7 5.5 21.8 7.1 1.47 2016 67 63 129 28.0 65.9 6.1 19.7

7.0 1.27 2021 71 67 137 25.7 67.6 6.7 18.2 7.0 1.12 2026 74 70 144 24.1 68.5 7.4 16.5 7.1 0.94 2031 77 74

151 22.4 69.1 8.5 14.7 7.3 0.74 2036 79 76 155 20.7 69.5 9.8 13.4 7.6 0.58 2041 81 78 159 19.1 69.6 11.3

12.5 8.0 0.45 2046 83 80 162 17.9 69.2 12.9 11.9 8.6 0.33 2051 83 81 165 17.1 68.3 14.6 11.4 9.3 0.21 2056 84

82 166 16.5 67.0 16.5 10.7 9.9 0.08 2061 84 82 166 15.9 65.5 18.7 10.2 10.6 -0.04 Projected Trends in Population Size (in crores) and CBR and CDR, India, up to 2061 180 30.0 160 25.0 140 120

20.0 100 15.0 80 60 10.0 40 5.0 20 0 2001 2011 2021 Persons 2031 CBR 2041 CDR 2051 0.0 2061 Changes in Age Structure and Demographic Dividend The age structure of population has been changing and will change further The population has begun to age and will continue to age The share of young age population will fall and that of old ages, 60+ or 65+ , will rise steadily The share of middle ages will rise for some time

Projected percentage age distribution, India, up to 2061 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2001 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061 0-14 15-64 65+ Projected trends in broad age distribution, India, up to 2061 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2001 2011 2021 0-14 2031 2041 15-64 65+

2051 2061 Population pyramid, India, 2011 (populations in millions) 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 80 60 40 20 0 M 20 F 40 60 80 Projected population pyramid, India, 2031 (populations in millions) 80+ 75-79

70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 80 60 40 20 0 M 20 F 40 60 80 Projected population pyramid, India, 2061 (populations in millions) 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34

25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 80 60 40 20 0 M 20 F 40 60 80 Window of Demographic Opportunity The share of population in working ages, 15-59 or 20-64 is projected to rise. This will lower the dependency ratio yielding the demographic dividend, or demographic opportunity. The dependency ratio has fallen below 67 percent (twothirds) and will remain so up to 2050s. The peak dividend will accrue in through the 2020s and 2030s. The window will begin to close after that. Projected trend in dependency ratio (percent) of population in ages 0-14 and 60+ (young and old ages) to population in ages 15-59 (working ages), up to 2061 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40

2001 2011 2021 2031 Dividend line 2041 INDIA 2051 2061 Regional variations in population growth The demographic transition, decline in mortality and fertility, has not been uniform across states and regions Some regions, especially the southern states, north-western states, Maharashtra and West Bengal are ahead in the transition Such staggered transition has implications in terms of residual growth, variations in growth over time, and the timing of the window of demographic opportunity Some states will reach the stage of zero growth around 2040 whereas some will continue to grow beyond 2060 The shares of states in the national population will change Projected populations 2061, large states, (without inter-state migration) Population (in crores) 2001 State India 2011 Growth 2061 Broad age distribution (percent) 2061 0-14 2061 Vital rates

2001 to 2061 15-64 65+ CBR CDR RNI (%) (crores) 15.9 65.5 18.7 10.2 10.6 -0.04 62.83 ( %) 61.1 102.86 121.08 165.69 AP & Telangana Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Delhi Gujarat Haryana 7.62 2.67 8.30 2.08 1.39 5.07 2.11 8.46 3.12 10.41 2.55 1.68 6.04 2.54 9.61

4.34 19.53 3.62 1.99 7.97 3.29 14.3 16.7 19.1 16.8 12.7 16 15.3 62.4 66.3 68.4 66.3 60.1 64.1 63.8 23.3 17.1 12.5 16.8 27.2 19.9 20.8 9.1 11 12.3 11.2 8 10.4 10.1 13.1 11.2 7.4 10.6 12.2 11.2 11.3 -0.39 -0.02

0.49 0.06 -0.42 -0.08 -0.12 1.99 1.68 11.23 1.54 0.61 2.90 1.17 26.1 62.9 135.3 73.9 43.9 57.2 55.4 Himachal Pradesh 0.61 0.69 0.76 13 61.5 25.4 8.2 12.6 -0.44 0.15 24.9 Jammu & Kashmir Jharkhand Karnataka

Kerala 1.01 2.69 5.29 3.18 1.25 3.30 6.11 3.34 1.61 4.96 7.00 3.57 13.4 16.8 13.9 13.5 64 67.4 62.5 60.3 22.6 15.8 23.6 26.2 9 10.9 8.9 8.5 10.2 9.6 12.8 12 -0.12 0.13 -0.39 -0.35 0.60 2.27

1.72 0.38 58.9 84.2 32.5 12 Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Odisha Punjab Rajasthan Tamil Nadu 6.03 9.69 3.68 2.44 5.65 6.24 7.26 11.24 4.20 2.77 6.85 7.21 11.16 12.81 5.17 3.03 10.80 7.47 17.4 12.9 16 12.6 17 12.9 67.2 61.6 64.8 60.7 66.7 60.8

15.3 25.5 19.2 26.6 16.3 26.3 11.4 8.1 10.4 7.9 11 8.1 9.9 12.3 12 12.7 9.1 13.9 0.16 -0.41 -0.15 -0.49 0.2 -0.57 5.12 3.12 1.49 0.60 5.15 1.23 84.9 32.2 40.5 24.6 91.1 19.7 16.62 0.85 8.02 19.98 1.01

9.13 32.39 1.26 10.32 17.4 13.6 13.3 68.1 64.1 62.1 14.5 22.2 24.7 11.2 8.6 8.2 9.2 10.9 12.5 0.2 -0.23 -0.43 15.77 0.42 2.30 94.9 49 28.7 Uttar Pradesh Uttrakhand West Bengal Projected populations (in millions) up to 2061, very large states (without inter-state migration) 350 300 250 200 150

100 50 0 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061 AP+TEL RAJASTHAN BIHAR U. P. M.P. WEST BENGAL MAHARASHTRA Projected populations (in millions) up to 2061, large states (without inter-state migration) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 ASSAM KARNATAKA 2036 GUJARAT ODISHA 2041 2046 JHARKHAND TAMIL NADU

2051 2056 2061 Projected populations (in millions) up to 2061, moderate sized states (w/o inter-state migration) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2001 2006 2011 2016 CHHATT J& K 2021 2026 2031 DELHI KERALA 2036 HARYANA PUNJ 2041 2046 2051 2056 HP UTTARAKHAND 2061 Projected trends in shares of states, 2001 to 2061 (without inter-state migration) 2001 2011

2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 AP & Telengana Assam Bihar 7.4 2.6 8.1 7.0 2.6 8.6 6.7 2.6 9.1 6.4 2.6 9.9 6.2 2.6 10.5 6.0 2.6 11.1 5.8 2.6 11.8 Chhattisgarh Delhi Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh

2.0 1.3 4.9 2.1 0.6 2.1 1.4 5.0 2.1 0.6 2.1 1.4 5.0 2.1 0.5 2.1 1.3 4.9 2.0 0.5 2.2 1.3 4.9 2.0 0.5 2.2 1.2 4.8 2.0 0.5 2.2 1.2 4.8 2.0 0.5 Jammu & Kashmir Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh 1.0

2.6 5.1 3.1 5.9 1.0 2.7 5.0 2.8 6.0 1.0 2.8 4.9 2.6 6.2 1.0 2.8 4.7 2.4 6.3 1.0 2.9 4.5 2.3 6.5 1.0 2.9 4.4 2.2 6.6 1.0 3.0 4.2 2.2 6.7 Maharashtra Odisha Punjab Rajasthan 9.4 3.6 2.4

5.5 9.3 3.5 2.3 5.7 8.9 3.4 2.2 5.9 8.6 3.3 2.1 6.1 8.3 3.2 2.0 6.2 8.0 3.2 1.9 6.4 7.7 3.1 1.8 6.5 Tamil Nadu 6.1 6.0 5.6 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.5 Uttar Pradesh

16.2 16.5 17.3 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 Uttarakhand 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 West Bengal 7.8 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.2 Remaining India

1.6 100 1.6 100 1.9 100 1.9 100 1.9 100 1.9 100 1.8 100 Projected trends in Various Regions (population in crores) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2001 2011 North-central (7 states) Eastern (3 states) 2021 2031 North-west (5 states) Southern (5 states)

2041 2051 Western (2 states) 8 Small states and 6 UTs Projected trends in Various Regions (population shares in percent) 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2001 2011 North-central (7 states) Eastern (3 states) 2021 2031 North-west (5 states) Southern (5 states) 2041 Western (2 states) 8 Small states and 6 UTs 2051 Projected Trends in Decadal Growth in Various Regions (population in crores) 20 15 10

5 0 2001-11 2011-21 2021-31 2031-41 2041-51 -5 North-central (7 states) Eastern (3 states) North-west (5 states) Southern (5 states) Western (2 states) 8 Small states and 6 UTs Projected Trends in Decadal Growth in Various Regions (percentage shares) 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 2001-11 2011-21 2021-31 2031-41 2041-51 -20.0 North-central (7 states) Eastern (3 states) North-west (5 states)

Southern (5 states) Western (2 states) 8 Small states and 6 UTs Projected trends in dependency ratio, large states leading in transition 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 Dividend line INDIA KERALA TAMIL NADU DELHI 45 WEST BENGAL PUNJAB AP KARNATAKA MAHARASHTRA GUJARAT 40 2001 2011 HIMACHAL 2021

2031 2041 2051 2061 Projected trends in dependency ratio, large states lagging in transition 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 2001 2011 Dividend line ASSAM JHARKHAND BIHAR 2021 INDIA HARYANA M.P. 2031 2041 ODISHA UTTARAKHAND RAJASTHAN 2051 J&K CHHATT UTTAR PRADESH

2061 Phases of demographic dividend, large states 2001 Kerala Tamil Nadu Delhi Andhra Pradesh & Telengana Gujarat Karnataka Himachal Pradesh Punjab West Bengal Maharashtra Odisha Haryana Assam INDIA Chhattisgarh Uttrakhand Uttar Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan Jharkhand Bihar 2011 Phase III 2021 Phase II 2031 Phase I 2041 2051 2061 THANK YOU

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