Transport decarbonisa tion and other bananalyses Recent UKERC

Transport decarbonisa tion and other bananalyses Recent UKERC Dr Christian Brand | University of Oxford work Prof Jillian Anable | University of Leeds UKERC transport/energy recent work 1. Lifestyle change, efficiency and limits 2. Road to Zero: ban analysis framed around disruption of transport-energy systems 3. Lower/higher speed limits and CO2 4. Car purchasing incentives, behavioural model, consumer segmentation 5. Role of transport in 4th and 5th carbon budgets 6. Beyond Dieselgate: AQ and CO2 trade-offs and cobenefits of emissions mitigation policy 7. Car purchasing incentives: feebates, scrappage incentives, VED 8. adVANce (accelerating decreases in van carbon emissions) 9. Associated project: RACER (Rapid Acceleration of Car Emissions Reductions) Example 1: Energy/transport systemic change Scottish Transport Energy and Air pollution Model STEAM: A joint project between UKERC and CXC to provide modelling capability for future transport and energy strategy development (2016-2017) Brand, C., Anable, J. & Morton, C. (2019) Lifestyle, efficiency and limits: modelling transport energy and emissions using a socio-technical approach, Energy Efficiency, 12: 187.

https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-018-9678-9 Energy/transport systemic change: example 1 Scottish Transport Energy and Air pollution Model Assessment of how Scotland can move to a low carbon and clean transport energy system Model of the Scottish transport energy system (STEAM) How will the transport energy system evolve? Systematic comparison of scenarios: 1. Lifestyle change and socio-cultural factors 2. Low carbon technological change Brand, C., Anable, J. & Morton, C. (2019) Lifestyle, efficiency and limits: modelling transport energy and emissions using a socio-technical approach, Energy Efficiency, 12: 187. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-018-9678-9 What are lifestyles? To what extent could lifestyle change contribute to meeting carbon reduction targets? Various components: Consumption patterns (material + non-material) Preferences (price + non-price driven) Use of time and space Social values and norms Public acceptance of technology and policy change Modelling lifestyle, efficiency & limits Income and population growth;

International context Social norms, attitudes preferences, acceptance, consumption Technology performance, infrastructure investment, value support Scenario s Modelling Story line Scottish Transport Energy Air pollution Model (STEAM) Transport demand Vehicle supply Lifecycle energy use and emissions REF LS EV

LS EV Impacts Costs Iterations (if policy goal driven) Reference (REF) Projection of transport demand, supply, energy use and emissions as if there were no changes to transport and energy policy beyond October 2016 EV promotion + fossil fuel demotion (EV) Pathway of high electrification + phasing out of conventional ICEs + supporting policy and Investment measures, consumer preferences 7 Lifestyle change (LS) Radical change in travel patterns, mode choice and car ownership and use leading to relatively fast transformations and new demand trajectories Combined lifestyle and EV pathway (LS EV) Integration of radical

change in travel patterns, mode choice, high electrification and phasing out of ICE road vehicles Lifestyle change (LS) storyline Social norms elevate active modes and low carbon vehicles in status and demote large cars, single occupancy car travel, speeding and air travel Move towards localism shorter trips ICT fewer trips New models of car ownership: e.g. small car + car club fewer trips, fewer vehicles Phasing out of fossil fuelled vehicles in town/city centres, increased parking charges and strict speed enforcement Policy environment is one of push and pull as fiscal and regulatory sticks are combined with the carrot of infrastructure investment (e.g. in car clubs, public transport, cycle infrastructure, railway capacity) High EV pathway (EV) storyline Choice of ULEV available across segments and brands Investment in recharging infrastructure (home, fast) Increased consumer awareness and acceptance of ULEVs driven by marketing campaigns and neighbourhood effect Repositioning by major vehicle manufacturers Phasing out of fossil fuelled vehicles in town/city centres Policy environment is one of push and pull as fiscal and regulatory sticks are combined with the carrot of infrastructure investment

Lifestyle and mobility changes in 2050 LS EV Accessibility Localism Slower speeds Compact cities combined scenario (LS EV) Distance travelled Mode choice Car-free zones Car clubs ICT ULEV choice EV infrastructure Phasing out Vehicle choice Down 14% Car from 74% to 41% by distance W&C from 3% to 17% by distance Taxi/Uber, car clubs from 2% to 7% by distance Plug-in cars from <1% to 80% of VKMs Driving Style Eco-driving = 6% reduction in

energy use and CO2 per km Load factors Car occupancy up 12% FFV Less air travel Policy Brand, C., Anable, J. & Morton, C. (2019) Lifestyle, efficiency and limits: modelling transport energy and emissions using a socio-technical approach, Energy Efficiency, 12: Travel patterns change considerably average distance travelled per person per year by transport mode REF LS 8000 o t h e r p u b l ic 7000 a ir ( d o m e s t ic ) ta x i 6000 r a il 5000 coa ch 4000 lo c a l b u s o t h e r p r iv a t e

3000 m o t o r c y c le c a r (a s p a s s e n g e r) 2000 c a r ( a s d r iv e r ) 1000 c y c lin g 0 w a lk in g 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 2070 52% reduction in distance travelled by car by 2050 d is ta n c e tr a v e lle d p e r p e r s o n p e r y e a r [m ile s ] d is ta n c e tr a v e lle d p e r p e r s o n p e r y e a r [m ile s ]

8000 o t h e r p u b lic 7000 a i r ( d o m e s t ic ) ta x i 6000 r a il 5000 coa ch lo c a l b u s 4000 o t h e r p r iv a t e 3000 m o t o r c y c le 2000 c a r (a s p a s s e n g e r) 1000 c a r ( a s d r iv e r ) c y c lin g 0 2012

Slow modes account for 17% of travel in 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2070 w a lk in g Also: air travel down, freight down somewhat 11 Brand, C., Anable, J. & Morton, C. (2019) Lifestyle, efficiency and limits: modelling transport energy and emissions using a socio-technical approach, Energy Efficiency, 12: The electric vehicle (r)evolution 200 new car sales [thousand] 180 REF LS EV

LS EV 160 140 Electricity BEV 120 Diesel PHEV 100 Diesel HEV 80 Diesel ICV 60 Gasoline PHEV 40 Gasoline HEV 20 Gasoline ICV 2020 2030 LS EV

EV LS REF | LS EV EV LS REF | LS EV EV LS REF | REF 2012 0 EV, LS EV: by 2030 63% of new cars are plug-in vehicles by 2050, 85% of new cars are plug-in

2050 High EV: private, fleet and commercial buyers increasingly prefer electric vehicles over conventional internal combustion cars and vans Lifestyle: lower overall car ownership (and therefore sales) levels, reflecting the tendency towards less overall car use and the increased membership of car clubs for use of a variety of types of cars for longer distance journeys 12 Brand, C., Anable, J. & Morton, C. (2019) Lifestyle, efficiency and limits: modelling transport energy and emissions using a socio-technical approach, Energy Efficiency, 12: CO2: similar reductions in 2050 for LS and EV but LS shows earlier gains 12 REF LS EV LS EV CO2 emissions at source [MtCO2] 10 Air, international Air, domestic 8 Navigation, domestic Rail - diesel only 6

LS: down 25% between 2012 and Van 2030, 46% by 2050 Bus EV: similar Car Motorcycle reductions by 2050, but progress slower LS EV: down 57% 2012 to 2050 HGV 4 2 0 REF 2012 | REF LS EV LS EV 2020 2020 2020 2020 | REF LS EV LS EV 2030 2030 2030 2030 | REF LS EV LS EV 2050 2050 2050 2050 Lifecycle* GHG emissions reductions lower overall: LS 43%, EV 35%, LS EV 51%

Cumulative emissions advantage for LS (72 MtCO2e) over EV (41 MtCO2e) Includes upstream emissions from power generation and fuel production, as well as vehicle 13 manufacture, maintenance and disposal. (*) Results | combined lifestyle and high EV scenario (LS EV) Average number of trips (pppa) Average distance travelled (km pppa) Avg. car occupancy Mode split (% distance) - cars and motorcycles - slow modes - bus and rail - taxi/Uber, car clubs, other private - domestic air On-road fuel efficiency: - cars, 8% better per km - vans, 8% better per km - trucks, 4% better per km International air demand growth (pa) Vehicle technology choice, e.g. share of new cars by propulsion/fuel 2012 1,010 11,498 1.57 2020 1,006 11,321 1.58 2030 999 11,029

1.62 2050 955 9,845 1.76 74% 3% 14% 2% 7% km affected 4% 2% 2% 1.2% 98% ICEV petrol/diesel Direct CO2, reduction over baseline (REF) Lifecycle CO2e, reduction over baseline (REF) Direct NOX, reductions over baseline (REF) Direct PM2.5, reductions over baseline (REF) n/a n/a n/a n/a 71% 4% 15% 3% 6% km affected 17%

17% 17% 0.9% 17% HEV 1% BEV 3% PHEV -4% -5% -2% -2% 61% 8% 19% 4% 6% km affected 52% 59% 59% 0.5% 2% HEV 13% BEV 53% PHEV -21% -20% -12% -9% 41% 17% 28% 7% 6% km affected 62% 70%

70% 0.1% 0% HEV 45% BEV 40% PHEV -47% -42% -38% -34% Modelling lifestyle, efficiency & limits: key messages All scenario modelling studies are wrong, some are useful Lifestyle change can provide earlier reductions, higher cumulative savings and lower system costs than wholescale infrastructure change At the very least lifestyle change may make the achievement of radical carbon reductions such as the 90% by 2050 easier Best option to meet policy targets in Scotland is combined package of radical lifestyle change and high EV pathway Must deliver within the existing socio-technical system whilst fostering the need for wider systemlevel transformation But: can any of this be achieved on this scale and timescale? Brand, C., Anable, J. & Morton, C. (2019) Lifestyle, efficiency and limits: modelling transport energy and emissions using a socio-technical approach, Energy Efficiency, 12: 187. Example 1: Disruption and continuity in transport energy systems Aim: to explore disruptive rates of change in comparison with natural rates of change and their impacts on key stakeholders Some questions:

2040 ban: What if the UK government were more ambitious? (2030, HEV) How can the R2Z strategy/ban be achieved while maximising co benefits? Do the different fleet turnover rates in different regions of the UK warrant different targets and action in different places? Who is disrupted? Policy & planning, industry, civil society What are the implications of different consumer acceptability and behavioural scenarios? Lifestyle change and social norms? @UKERCHQ Conceptual framework: petrol/diesel ban Emergent transformation Level of coordination Petrol/diesel efficiency improvemen ts Purposive transition Disruption for: Industry and business? Policy and planning? Civil society? Continuity Tax Support breaks

for for petrol synthetic and biofuels ICE engine diesel improveme nts Ban ICEs Ban ICEs by 2040 by 2030 Disruption Supply failures (eg EV charging infrastruct ure, EV supply) Type of change Unexpect ed technolog y breakthro ugh (eg batteries) EV subsidies (eg up front, VED, parking,

access charges) Ban ICE & Ban ICE & HEV by HEV by 2040 2030 @UKERCHQ Disruption for industry and consumers? ULEV uptake share of new ULEV cars and vans 100% Mission for all new cars and vans to be effectively zero emission by 2040: met by including hybrids BUT NOT in in ICE only bans 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2015 2020 2025 Reference ICE ban 2030

ICE+HEV ban 2030 ICE+HEV+PHEV ban 2030 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 ICE ban 2040 ICE+HEV ban 2040 ICE+HEV+PHEV ban 2040 Brand, C and Anable J (2019) Disruption and continuity in transport energy systems: the case of the ban on new conventional fossil fuel vehicles, paper presented at ECEEE summer study, June, France. Ambition of 50% new ULEV by 2030: met by including hybrids BUT NOT in ICE only bans Disruption for oil & gas industry, vehicle supply? Diesel cars and vans (ICE+HEV) Still a lot of diesels on the road in 2050 Zero diesels only in ICE+HEV 2030 ban from late

2040s Brand, C and Anable J (2019) Disruption and continuity in transport energy systems: the case of the ban on new conventional fossil fuel vehicles, paper presented at ECEEE summer study, June, France. Impacts: tailpipe CO2e from cars and vans Road to Zero ban too little too late? Largest and earliest savings in conventional ICE + hybrid ban by 2030 Brand, C and Anable J (2019) Disruption and continuity in transport energy systems: the case of the ban on new conventional fossil fuel vehicles, paper presented at ECEEE summer study, June, France. Impacts: lifecycle CO2e from car and van manufacture, use, maintenance, end-of-life Upstream and downstream emissions remain Emissions from generation of electricity replace those from fossil fuel production Brand, C and Anable J (2019) Disruption and continuity in transport energy systems: the case of the ban on new conventional fossil fuel vehicles, paper presented at ECEEE summer study, June, France.

Disruptive for HMT? Fuel tax revenues from cars and vans Road to Zero ban: modest decrease >2040 Disruptive fall in revenue streams from late 2020s Brand, C and Anable J (2019) Disruption and continuity in transport energy systems: the case of the ban on new conventional fossil fuel vehicles, paper presented at ECEEE summer study, June, France. Disruption for oil & gas industry part 2 Energy demand from cars and vans 1200 Gasoline Diesel energy demand [PJ] 1000 Electricity 800 600 400 200 Reference 2015 | Reference ICE 2040 ICE 2030 ICE+HEV 2040

ICE+HEV 2030 ICE+HEV+PHEV 2040 ICE+HEV+PHEV 2030 | Reference ICE 2040 ICE 2030 ICE+HEV 2040 ICE+HEV 2030 ICE+HEV+PHEV 2040 ICE+HEV+PHEV 2030 | Reference ICE 2040 ICE 2030 ICE+HEV 2040 ICE+HEV 2030 ICE+HEV+PHEV 2040 ICE+HEV+PHEV 2030 | Reference ICE 2040 ICE 2030 ICE+HEV 2040 ICE+HEV 2030 ICE+HEV+PHEV 2040 ICE+HEV+PHEV 2030 0 2025 2030 2040 2050

Brand, C and Anable J (2019) Disruption and continuity in transport energy systems: the case of the ban on new conventional fossil fuel vehicles, paper presented at ECEEE summer study, June, France. Disruptive fall in energy demand for fossil fuels from mid 2030s only Disruption for: Vehicle manufacturers, energy supply Consumers Government & policy Wider civil society Emergent transformation Mapping disruption: the fossil fuel ban policies Continuity Type of change Petrol/ diesel effi ciency improvements I CE+HEV ban 2040 I CE+HEV ban 2030

I CE+HEV +PHEV ban 2040 I CE+HEV +PHEV ban 2030 The 4 colours represent different actors Level of coordination I CE ban 2030 Purposive transition Policies: I CE ban 2040 Disruption Supply failures (eg EV charging infrastructure, EV supply) Unexpected technology breakthrough (eg batteries) EV subsidies (eg up front, VED,

parking, access charges) end-of-pipe policies continuity policies Brand, C and Anable J (2019) Disruption and continuity in transport energy systems: the case of the ban on new conventional fossil fuel vehicles, paper presented at ECEEE summer study, June, France. transformation policies Example 3: UKERC ENERGY 2050 Assessment of how the UK can move to a resilient and low carbon energy system over the period to 2050 Suite of sectoral + whole system models of the UK energy system How will the energy system evolve? Systematic comparison of scenarios: Carbon constraints & cost optimisation Technology acceleration Lifestyle change and socio-cultural factors Anable et al. 2012; Eyre et al. 2010; Brand et al. 2012 Lifestyle scenario - methodology Income and population

growth; International context Social norms, attitudes preferences, acceptance, consumption Modelling UK Domestic Carbon Model UK Transport Carbon Model* Output 1 Energy Service Demands Modelling Variants Story line LS REF MARKAL * UKTCM = UK Transport Carbon Model (Brand 2010; Brand et al 2012) LS LC

Lifestyle scenario (LS) storyline Social norms elevate active modes and low carbon vehicles in status and demote large cars, single occupancy car travel, speeding and air travel Move towards localism ICT (Information and Communication Technologies) New models of car ownership: e.g. small car + car club Phasing out of large vehicles in town/city centres, increased parking charges and strict speed enforcement Policy environment is one of push and pull as fiscal and regulatory sticks are combined with the carrot of infrastructure investment (e.g. in car clubs, public transport, cycle infrastructure, railway capacity) 27 Transport sector lifestyle and mobility changes in 2050 Accessibility Localism Slower speeds Compact cities Car-free zones Car clubs Total distance Down 21% Mode choice Car from 81% - 38% distance Cycling from 1% -13% distance

Vehicle choice HEV + BEV + PHEV = 77% share of total VKMs in 2050 Driving Style Eco-driving = 5% reduction in FC and CO2 per km by 2025 Load factors Car occupancy up 23% by 2050 ICT Teleworking Tele-shopping Less air travel Policy acceptance Anable et al. 2012; Eyre et al. 2010; Brand et al. 2012 Mode split in 2007, 2020 and 2050 14000 Average distance travelled (km pppa) 12000 other public Cycling +

walking = 28% 36% of distance still by car in 2050 other private rail 10000 distance bus local bus 8000 motorcycle 6000 car/ van passenger car/ van driver 4000 bike 2000 walk 0 2007 2020 2050

Transport sector fuel demand impacts Biofuels and 2,500 hydrogen only Transport Fuel Demand in different scenarios (2000 and 2050) in constrained appear cases Final demand halved Ethanol/methanol 2,000 Electricity = 18% Bio-diesel/kerosene Jet fuel PJ 1,500 Hydrogen 1,000 Electricity Diesel 500 Petrol

- 2000 REF LS REF LC LS LC Projections of CO2 emissions (in MtC at source from domestic transport in each scenario, MED results) 160 140 120 CO2 emissions (Mt) 100 80 60 REF 40 LS REF LC 20 LS LC 0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Example 4: Motorway speed limits (and enforcement) across GB 4-wheeled vehicles on 70 mph roads = 41% road transport CO2 (Scotland: ca. 32%) & 8% of all CO2 Ca. 50% of cars exceed the speed limit on motorways 4 wheeled vehicles on 70mph roads: 13.2 MtC (8%)

Total road transport: 33 MtC (21%) (30% in Scotland) All UK emissions: 156.1 MtC [% share of total in speed bracket] Motorway speed limits - model setup 40 Current 35 113kph (70mph) 130kph (80mph) 30 100kph (62mph) 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 -5

5 5 -1 15 5 -2 25 5 -3 35 -4 5 45 5 -5 55 5 -6 65 5 -7 75

5 -8 85 5 -9 95 05 -1 5 10 15 -1 5 11 25 -1 speed brackets [kph] Source: Anable & Brand (2011) UKERC Policy Brief: Speed limits and carbon emissions 5 12 35 -1 5 13

45 -1 5+ 14 Motorway speed limits - key results Life-cycle carbon in 2020 change vs REF (MtCO2e pa) 113kph 130kph 100kph (70mph) (80mph) (62mph) enforce not enforce d enf. d -1.3 +1.3 -2.7 change vs +0.7 *Current emissions from passenger cars in the UK ~ 70 MtCO per annum REF* -0.9% -2.1% (% over total)

% Source: Anable & Brand (2011) UKERC Policy Brief: Speed limits and carbon emissions 2 Example 5 - Energy/transport systemic change Analysis of 4th and 5th carbon budgets Scenario analysis exploring UK Committee on Climate Change high EV pathways for 4th and 5th carbon budgets Q: When do we need to do what in order to meet the CCCs high EV uptake pathway targets? Energy/transport systemic change: Analysis of 4th and 5th carbon budgets ESRC Evidence Briefing: http://www.esrc.ac.uk/files/news-events-andpublications/evidence-briefings/supporting-large-scale-transition-to-electric-cars/ Brand, Cluzel and Anable (2017) Integrated modeling of the scale, timing and impacts of the uptake of plug-in vehicles in a heterogeneous car market using a disaggregated consumer segmentation approach, Transportation Research A: Policy and Practice, 97: 121-136. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2017.01.017 Energy/transport systemic change: Analysis of 4th and 5th carbon budgets New integrated systems model of heterogeneous car market provides policy-focused conclusions Change in supply, demand and policy needed to meet CCC goals for 60% of new vehicles to be EVs by 2030 Vehicle supply: EVs to be available in all vehicle segments and by all major brands e.g. driven by car CO2 regulation

Awareness and acceptance: all potential buyers aware of EVs promotions, field trials, car clubs, neighbour effect Charging infrastructure: investment in high levels of overnight charging and a national network of rapid charging points public & private investment Incentives: for private and company/fleet buyers capital incentives (ECA, EV grant, BIK), graded purchase tax/VED, innovative business models Brand, Cluzel and Anable (2017) Integrated modeling of the scale, timing and impacts of the uptake of plug-in vehicles in a heterogeneous car market using a disaggregated consumer segmentation approach, Transportation Research A: Policy and Practice, 97: 121-136. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2017.01.017 Energy/transport systemic change: Analysis of 4th and 5th carbon budgets 70% 60% CCC EV target for 2030 50% 40% BASE CCC EV 30% 20% 10% 0% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040

2050 Fleet and company car markets drive early transition to ULEVs too early to remove incentives Fast re-charging network and continued incentive support key to drive private market Brand, Cluzel and Anable (2017) Integrated modeling of the scale, timing and impacts of the uptake of plug-in vehicles in a heterogeneous car market using a disaggregated consumer segmentation approach, Transportation Research A: Policy and Practice, 97: 121-136. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2017.01.017 Energy/transport systemic change: CCC 60% EV by 2030 scenario - who buys electric vehicles? EV market driven by fleet manager segment and user choosers Laggards keep resisting Brand, Cluzel and Anable (2017) Integrated modeling of the scale, timing and impacts of the uptake of plug-in vehicles in a heterogeneous car market using a disaggregated consumer segmentation approach, Transportation Research A: Policy and Practice, 97: 121-136. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2017.01.017 Brand et al. (2015) Energy/transport systemic change:

life cycle CO2 [Mt pa] Lifecycle CO2: Direct CO2e emissions decrease for cars but offset by indirect emissions from electricity generation and vehicle manufacturing and recycling/disposal historic 110 historic modelled modelled 12% reduction by 2030 20% reduction by 2040s 100 90 80 70 60 50 Brand, Cluzel and Anable (2017) Integrated modeling of the scale, timing and impacts of the uptake of plug-in vehicles in a heterogeneous car market using a disaggregated consumer segmentation approach, Transportation Research A: Policy and Practice, 97: 121-136. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2017.01.017 BASE CCC EV Example 6: car purchasing incentives Upfront cost incentives are crucial Car purchasing feebates can be effective in accelerating low carbon technology uptake and reducing life cycle GHG emissions whilst ensuring revenue neutrality

Adaptive CO2 grading and flexible and dynamic policy design crucial in achieving transition Brand, C., Anable, J., Tran, M. (2013) Accelerating the transformation to a low carbon passenger transport system: The role of car purchase taxes, feebates, road taxes and scrappage incentives in the UK. Transp. Res.: Part A: Pol. Practice 49, 132-148. UKTCM purchase feebate high policy ambition 4,000 KLM (>200g/km) 2,000 J (186-200g/km) 2,000 I (176-185g/km) 1,000 H (166-175g/km) 1,000 G (151-165g/km) 0 F (141-150g/km) -500 2011 2014 -500 -1,000 -1,000

E (131-140g/km) D (121-130g/km) C (111-120g/km) B (101-110g/km) -2,000 A (<100g/km) -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 rebate 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 fee feebates are tightened every 5 years by one CO2 New cars sales over time by CO2 band % share of new cars purchased feebate high policy ambition 50% 45% 21% by 40% 2030 35% 42% by 200 30% 2050 0 25% 201 20% 0

15% 202 0 10% 203 5% 0 0% 79 99 19 84 55 49 24 54 EV 1 1 1 2 2 2 & = 50 80 000550 0 2 5 8 2 > 1 1 1

1 2 <5 CO2 performance [gCO2/km] CPT2b: between 4k fee for >200g and 3k rebate for <100g, tightening every 5 years, plus 5p/kWh duty on electricity from 2020 Brand, C., Anable, J., Tran, M. (2013) Accelerating the transformation to a low carbon passenger transport system: The role of car purchase taxes, feebates, road taxes and scrappage incentives in the UK. Transp. Res.: Part A: Pol. Practice 49, 132-148. c u m u la tiv e C O 2 e (M t) Policy comparison Cumulative savings of life cycle CO2e 100 2010-... 2010-... 2010-... CPT1 0 CPT2 b CPT3 a SCR2 a SCR3 VED1 VED3 Brand, C., Anable, J., Tran, M. (2013) Accelerating the transformation to a low carbon passenger transport system:

The role of car purchase taxes, feebates, road taxes and scrappage incentives in the UK. Transp. Res.: Part A: Pol. Practice 49, 132-148. Example 7: Beyond Dieselgate Brand, C. (2016) Beyond Dieselgate: implications of unaccounted and future air pollutant emissions and energy use for cars in the United Kingdom, Energy Policy. Vol. 97, 2016, Pages 1-12, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.06.036 Beyond Dieselgate Explored the recent Dieselgate affair and potential market and policy responses Impacts on human health of real world NOX emissions in the UK between 2009 and 2039 have health costs of 11.6 46.5 billion De-dieselization can have large air quality benefits while showing few carbon disbenefits Electrification shows largest co-benefits but needs transformative approach across demand and supply And leads to a faster decline in road tax revenues Brand, C. (2016) Beyond Dieselgate: implications of unaccounted and future air pollutant emissions and energy use for cars in the United Kingdom, Energy Policy. Vol. 97, 2016, Pages 1-12, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.06.036 Beyond Dieselgate: Future CO2 and NOX emissions impacts scrappage rebate Graded tax for new diesel cars (800 to 2300 depending on official fuel economy and purchase price) Change in car sales by propulsion system 20% 10% Gasoline ICE Diesel ICE

Gasoline and diesel HEV Gasoline and diesel PHEV Battery EV 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 2020 2030 2040 2050 Brand, C. (2016) Beyond Dieselgate: implications of unaccounted and future air pollutant emissions and energy use for cars in the United Kingdom, Energy Policy. Vol. 97, 2016, Pages 1-12, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.06.036 Example 8: adVANce (accelerating decarbonisation of van carbon emissions) New UKERC Research Fund project led by Tony Whiteing (ITS, Leeds) (April 2017 Jul 2019) with Anable (Leeds), Brand (Oxford) Objectives Understand the diverse composition of LGV traffic, sources of recent growth and important structural changes likely to act as forces for potential future trends in LGV energy demand

Explore the opportunities to reduce the carbon intensity of LGV private and commercial transport demand through policies, organisational and logistical changes and new technologies Use a case study approach to allow focused investigation of specific: (i) systems of provision (e.g. for food); and (ii) area-based policies (e.g. Low Emission Zones); Pull together the various insights provided by these approaches in such a way that we can better estimate the potential impacts (UKwide and area-wide) of a sample of interventions using updated TEAM van and truck model Example 9: RACER (Rapid Acceleration of Car Emissions Reductions) UKERC funded project led by Kevin Anderson (Manchester) (Jan 2017 Dec 2018), with Anable (Leeds) some comparative work with TEAM/UKTCM Rationale UK CO2 emissions from passenger cars fallen only 3% since 1990 Need new passenger car CO2 budget based on Paris and IPCC AR5 Working hypothesis is that deep (~50%) emissions reductions are possible without major infrastructure changes or loss of utility Objectives WP1: Carbon budgets and emission pathways

WP2: Financial evaluation and economic appraisal of scenarios WP3: The political economy of passenger car CO2 reduction standards WP4: Assessment of additional intervention measures Define a set of intervention strategies that could be used to achieve higher savings Things to look out for next Disruption & continuity in transport energy systems Engaging in decision making and strategy development: Scottish Government, DfT Local and/or regional modelling: co-benefits of climate change, local air pollution and energy security STEAM LA: a spatially more explicit version for Scotland (LAs) UKTCM LA: as above, but for the UK (regions, LAs) Soft-linking up with TIMES (aka UKERC Energy2050) Key UKERC outputs and references

Brand, C, Morton, C and Anable, J (2019) Lifestyle, efficiency & limits: modelling transport energy and emissions using a socio-technical approach. Energy Efficiency, 12: 187, doi:10.1007/s12053-018-9678-9. Brand, C., Cluzel, C. and Anable, J. (2017) Modeling the uptake of plug-in vehicles in a heterogeneous car market using a consumer segmentation approach. Transp. Res.: Part A: Pol. Practice, 97: 121-136. Brand, C. (2016) Beyond Dieselgate: Implications of unaccounted and future air pollutant emissions and energy use for cars in the United Kingdom. Energy Policy 97, 1-12. Brand, C., Anable, J. and Tran, M. (2013) Accelerating the transformation to a low carbon transport system: the role of car purchase taxes, feebates, road taxes and scrappage incentives. Transp. Res.: Part A: Pol. Practice, 49: 132-148. Anable, J., Brand, C., Tran, M. and Eyre, N. (2012) Modelling transport energy demand: a socio-technical approach. Energy Policy. 41, pp.125 - 138. Brand, C., Tran, M. and Anable, J. (2012) The UK Transport Carbon Model: an integrated lifecycle approach to explore low carbon futures. Energy Policy. Vol 41, pp. 107-124. Eyre, N., Anable, J., Brand, C., Layberry, R. and Strachan, N. (2011) The way we live from now on: lifestyle and energy consumption. Chapter 9 in J. Skea, P.Ekins and M.Winskel (eds) Energy 2050: the transition to a secure and low carbon energy system for the UK. Earthscan. www.ukerc.ac.uk @UKERCHQ Get in touch [email protected] | @_chris_brand_ [email protected] | @jillian_anable

Appendix: background to the modelling tools TEAM-UK UK Transport Energy and Air pollution Model STEAM Scottish Transport Energy and Air pollution Model TEAM-UK | STEAM: purpose A modelling framework and tool to explore transport futures to meet carbon mitigation, air quality and low energy goals What is TEAM-UK | STEAM Strategic transport-energy-environment hybrid simulation model Wide range of policies and policy packages can be simulated: e.g. demand, vehicle ownership and use, fiscal, pricing, eco-driving, fuel obligations, speed limits, technology investment/procurement, urban area access restrictions Built around exogenous and quantified scenarios Passenger and freight transport, all modes: road | rail | shipping | air Annual projections up to 2100 Technology rich: endogenous modelling of 1246 vehicle techs Wide range of output indicators, including travel TEAM-UK | STEAM is not: Not a forecasting model But: long term forecasting may not be appropriate

Not a cost optimisation model like TIMES/MARKAL But: cost not the only factor particularly for vehicle ownership and use Neither economy nor energy systems model But: link with transport or energy systems models possible (as shown with Energy 2050 work) Not a transport network model, with limited geographical resolution (urban, rural, motorway, domestic air, international air, etc) with Local Authority versions for Scotland and England in development) But: network capacity constraints for road network modelled endogenously via congestion/speed profiles, otherwise exogenously 56 TEAM-UK | STEAM | features behavioural modelling 33 demand segments 770+ vehicle technologies (e.g. passenger: tripof purpose, # oftechnology trips, policy distance, occupancy) scenario variables variables vehicle choice (e.g. medium size petrol hybrid electric car, 2015-2019 vintage)

(discrete choice model, modelling segmentation) energy use and emissions Household car by technology demand segment transport demand and vehicle stock ownership model life cycle inventory model input phase UKTCM modelling framework STEAM modelling framework (e.g. GDP, demographics, income, pre-tax f uel prices) (e.g. vehicle taxes, speed limits, driver behaviour) partial equilibrium (pkm, tkm)

(total, new, scrapped) with added speed dependency and cold start emissions for road & scrappage vehicles (no car, 1 vehicle car , 2 cars,manufacture, 3+ cars, company maintenance car) modelling phase fuel supply incl. electricity generation energy & emissions environmental impacts model (direct f rom vehicle use) (indirect, non-use)and disposal new infrastructure construction, maintenance energy & emissions flexible, modular design impact indicators HCA) and valuation (external costs) within(GWP, database lifecycle energy & environment emissions (direct and indirect) environmental impacts and costs

57 analysis phase (e.g. GWP, acidif ication potential, external costs) view & export results (Access, Excel)

Recently Viewed Presentations

  • PDHymns

    PDHymns

    Shake Hands With Mother Again 2-4 I'd like to say "Mother, this is your boy, You left when you went away, And now my dear mother it gives me great joy To see you again today." 'Twill be a wonderful...
  • MLA - Effingham County School District

    MLA - Effingham County School District

    MLA format follows the author-page method of in-text citation. This means that the author's last name and the page number(s) from which the quotation or paraphrase is taken must appear in the text, and a complete reference should appear on...
  • The 12 Disciples - Bingo

    The 12 Disciples - Bingo

    Bartholomew. Thomas. Matthew. James 2. Thaddeus. Simon. Matthias. ... Bartholomew - Bartholomew is known for being an honest man who was convinced by Jesus' greatness upon his meeting with Him. Not a lot is known about him. ... The 12...
  • Electron Effective Mass, m* - ece.northeastern.edu

    Electron Effective Mass, m* - ece.northeastern.edu

    ECE G201 (Partly adapted from Prof. Hopwood) Goal: show that an electron behaves like a particle with mass m* = ħ2(d2E/dK2)-1 Recall that the electron energy is related to the frequency of the electron wave E = ħ and the...
  • template draft v3 06.04.2005 - download.microsoft.com

    template draft v3 06.04.2005 - download.microsoft.com

    MOM Essentials 5 - Advanced Configuration and Administration Gordon McKenna MOM - MVP Inframon Ltd. Management Pack Tuning Agenda Management Pack tuning - Management Pack Architectural Overview - Management Pack Overview Demo Management Pack Architectural Overview Key Terms Data sources...
  • Roaring Twenties - CHISD

    Roaring Twenties - CHISD

    The Ducktators War Productions Board Office of War Information Office of Censorship Office of Price Administration (OPA) and Ration Books Women and World War II Women in Armed Forces 350,000 served in military Women's Army Corps (WAC) Women Appointed for...
  • Grouped Data - Contents

    Grouped Data - Contents

    January 23, 2013 Warm - Up: Students will take a quiz, recalling information about mean, median, and average. Click on the link below to begin:
  • From Classical to Contemporary

    From Classical to Contemporary

    Film and Historiography HUM 3280: Narrative Film Fall 2011 Dr. Perdigao August 24, 2011 A history of film Evolutions, masterpieces, and periodization Different ways of studying the relationship between history and film, constructing a film history Historiography: "the study of...