Work and play: Disease spread, social behaviour and data collection in schools Dr Jenny Gage, Dr Andrew Conlan, Dr Ken Eames Diseases then and now Plague Plague 1918 Flu
Plague 1918 Flu HIV/AIDS Discussion What are the mechanisms by which diseases are transmitted? Microbes
Viruses Bacteria Worms Microbes Viruses Bacteria Worms
Person to person spread Discussion Seasonal flu occurs most winters. We want to understand the process, then we can control it. What causes flu? How is it spread? How can we prevent
its spread? www.google.org/flutrends Virus Molecules Virus Molecules Individuals Social Groups Virus Molecules
Individuals Social Groups Virus Molecules Individuals Populations Activity: The Standing Disease Everyone starts sitting down.
One person stands and is the first case. They pick two still sitting to infect. Those two stand up and each pick two others from those still sitting. The next generation stands up and each pick two more and so on. How many steps did the disease take to infect whole class? If time: try with THREE instead of TWO What if your class was bigger? 1
1 2 1 2 4 1 2
8 4 1 2 8 4
16 1 2 4 32 8 16
Discussion How many steps do you think it would take to infect everyone in the world? 1 2 4 8
16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 Step 0 Step 1 Step 2 Step 3
After 10 steps 1024 people are infected 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128
256 512 1024 2,048 4,096 8,192 16,384 32,768 65,536 131,072 262,144 524,288
1,048,576 2,097,152 After 22 steps over 2 million people are infected 1 2 4 8 16
32 64 128 256 512 1024 2,048 4,096 8,192 16,384 32,768 65,536
131,072 262,144 524,288 1,048,576 2,097,152 6.7 billion people in the world 1 2 4 8
16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2,048 4,096 8,192 16,384 32,768
65,536 131,072 262,144 524,288 1,048,576 2,097,152 6.7 billion people in the world 4000 3500 3000
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Plot the doubling sequence as a graph 0 5
10 15 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500
0 Plot the doubling sequence as a graph 0 5 10 15
Deaths Early part of epidemic Bombay plague epidemic, 1906 800 600 400 200 5
10 15 20 25 30 Weeks 4000 3500 3000
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Plot the doubling sequence as a graph 0 5
10 15 Deaths Doubling gives a good match for the early part of an epidemic Bombay plague
epidemic, 1906 800 600 400 200 5 10 15 20 25
30 Weeks Mathematicians try to find ways to model how diseases spread. The Standing Disease is a simple way to do this but it doesnt explain why after a rapid rise in infections there is a peak, and then the rate of infection starts to drop. You will find out more about this in the
presentation Modelling Disease. Mathematicians try to find ways to model how diseases spread. The Standing Disease is a simple way to do this but it doesnt explain why after a rapid rise in infections there is a peak, and then the rate of infection starts to drop. You will find out more about this in the presentation Modelling Disease. Mathematicians try to find ways to model
how diseases spread. The Standing Disease is a simple way to do this but it doesnt explain why after a rapid rise in infections it peaks, and then the rate of infection starts to drop. You will find out more about this in the presentation Modelling Disease. Mathematicians try to find ways to model how diseases spread. The Standing Disease is a simple way to do this
but it doesnt explain why after a rapid rise in infections it peaks, and then the rate of infection starts to drop. You will find out more about this in the presentation Modelling Disease.