Regional Business Review

Regional Business Review 3rd Annual Business Dinner James Hardie Dining Room Charles Sturt University Prepared by the Western Research Institute 22nd March 2004 Outline Regional Economy National Retail Industry Regional Retail Sector Changes in Central West Retail Key drivers and success factors Retail Outlook General Economic Outlook National and Regional

Australia Economic Growth + 3.5% pa N/a 5.8% 5.1% Unemployment Population Growth Central West + 1.2% pa + 0.1% pa

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Sales Performance 10 Net Balance 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Source: Regional Business Survey sponsored by the Central Western Regional Development Board and Country Energy

Regional Comparison 5 4 Net Balance 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 Central West Mid North Coast

Murray Murrumbidgee North Western Northern South Eastern Source: Regional Business Survey sponsored by the Central Western Regional Development Board and Country Energy Sector Comparison 5 4

Net Balance 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 Agriculture Business and Professional Services Tourism Manufacturing and Mining

Retail Source: December quarter Regional Business Survey sponsored by the Central Western Regional Development Board and Country Energy Significance of Retail Australia Central West Value Added $34 billion $325 million Employment 1.3 million

Sources: ABS and WRI Input Output Table 10,300 Retail Employment Profile 12% of Australian workforce 60% female 50% of all young people with a job work in retail Two-thirds are casual / part-time 25% of employment flow-on effects captured by retail Source: Retail Industry Profile prepared by the Australian Retailers Association Retail Sales Performance 10.0 8.0 6.0

4.0 2.0 0.0 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Source: Regional Retail Survey sponsored by Reliance Credit Union Regional Comparison 10 Net Balance 8

6 4 2 0 Bathurst Blayney Cow ra Dubbo Forbes Lithgow Mudgee

Orange Parkes Wellington Source: Regional Retail Survey sponsored by Reliance Credit Union Sector Comparison 10 Net balance 8 6 4 2 0 Clothing

Food Hospitality Household Motoring Other Recreational Goods Source: Regional Retail Survey sponsored by Reliance Credit Union Retail Shift Share Analysis Analysed job growth 1996-2001 Looking for sectors growing above state & industry averages Outperforming retail sectors: Specialised food + 23% Furniture & houseware + 71% Other Personal & household + 46% Source: Central West Shift-Share Analysis commissioned by the Central Western Regional Development Board

Building Approvals Change in value of Building Approvals (Four Quarter Moving Average) 70.0% 60.0% Central West 50.0% NSW 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01

-10.0% Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 -20.0% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Mar-03 Sep-03 Key Industry Drivers Level of consumer confidence Rate of household formation Level & changes in interest rates Population growth Economic growth Household disposable income Source: IBISWorld

Key Success Factors Good product offering Loyal customer base Clear market position Superior after sales service Access to latest technologies Economies of scale Proximity to key markets Source: IBISWorld Retail Outlook Retailer expectations slightly lower for March quarter of 2004 Long run average sales + 4% MONASH + 1.8% in 2004-05 Higher AUD increases demand for imported cars, electronics, etc Increased competition for market share

Growth Outlook Sector Central West Share Growth in 2004 Primary 21% + 9.4% Secondary 18%

- 0.9% Tertiary 14% + 3.0% Quaternary 29% + 3.4% 6% + 4.2%

Quinary Total + 3.5% Sources: Business Review Weekly State of the Nation 2004 and WRI Input-Output Table General Economic Outlook Business expectations higher for March quarter of 2004 Rebound in farm production Slowdown in housing market Strong domestic economy AUD forecasts 65.8c to 80c US Possibly higher interest rates Low inflation in RBA 2-3% range

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