Panhandle Bus Definition QMWG June 5, 2017 Purpose

Panhandle Bus Definition QMWG June 5, 2017 Purpose

Panhandle Bus Definition QMWG June 5, 2017 Purpose NPRR817, Create a Panhandle Hub, is under discussion and appears to have significant support; however, the confidence in the Hub definition is not strong. This analysis aims to provide options for ERCOT stakeholders to consider. Disclaimer this is the independent work of Megawatt Analytics, LLC and is not at the behest of any stakeholder and certainly should not be interpreted as such. June 5, 2017 Rules of Hubs Protocols List of busses cannot be modified unless physically removed (3.5.1(2)) Perpetual (2.1) Simple averages quantity of generation or load at bus is irrelevant. (3.5.2) Rules Average price of aggregated nodes (25.501 (g)) June 5, 2017 Patton Hub Recommendations Avoid intra-hub congestion ? The day-ahead market model should be used to test the definition of the hub by submitting large net energy purchases and sales at the hub location under a defined range of market conditions The nodes selected for use in the hub should be electrically similar and have a relatively stable price relationship in aggregate ? Resource node price correlations are strong, proposed hub bus correlations could be tested Use consistent weighting of nodes between definition of the hub and the distribution methodology Using non-energy weighted simple average is consistent with distribution methodology ( 4.5.1 (6) )

June 5, 2017 Methodology for Hub Analysis 1) Assume Panhandle GTC should be the basis for Hub definition; 2) Find SCED interval with only Panhandle GTC binding; 3) Sort using LMPs by Electrical Bus report; 4) Map electrical bus to substations using: Settlement Points List and Electrical Buses Mapping ERCOT Steady State Planning Data Dictionary Day-Ahead PSS-E Network Operations Model and Supporting Files June 5, 2017 Raw Result- 30 Busses MIAM1 SSPURTWO PH1 PH2 RAILHEAD ROUTE_66 CTT_GRAY ALN_CRK SALTFORK ALIBATES GRANDVW1 AJ_SWOPE WINDMILL MARIAH ASTRA HRFDWIND LHORN_N OGALLALA BRISCOE ABERNATH AEEC

TESLA TULECNYN CTT_CROS WHIT_RVR COTPLNS SPLAIN1 SPLAIN2 W_CW_345 WAKEWE June 5, 2017 1. ABERNATH 2. AEEC 3. AJ_SWOPE 4. ALIBATES 5. ALN_CRK 6. ASTRA 7. BRISCOE 8. COTPLNS

9. CTT_CROS 10. CTT_GRAY 11. GRANDVW 1 1. HRFDWIN D 1 2. LHORN_N 3. MARIAH 3 4. MIAM1 4 5. OGALLALA 5 6.

PH1 7. PH2 8. RAILHEAD 9. ROUTE_66 10. SALTFORK 11. SPLAIN1 2 6 7 8 Pare by Protocol? Electrically Similar Settlement Points Two or more distinct Settlement Points that are either mapped to the same electrical location in a market model or are mapped to locations that are connected by a transmission element with a reactance of less than 0.0005 per unit. June 5, 2017 Remove E.S.P. : 23 Busses MIAM1 SSPURTWO

1. ABERNATH 1. PH2 2. AJ_SWOPE 2. RAILHEAD 3. ALIBATES 3. ROUTE_66 4. ALN_CRK 4. SPLAIN1 5. ASTRA 5. SPLAIN2 6. CTT_CROS 6.

7. CTT_GRAY 7. SSPURTWO MARIAH ASTRA TESLA 8. GRANDVW 1 8. TULECNYN 9. W_CW_34 5 9. LHORN_N 10. MARIAH 10. WHIT_RVR 11. MIAM1 11. WINDMILL

12. OGALLALA AJ_SWOPE PH2 RAILHEAD ROUTE_66 CTT_GRAY ALN_CRK ALIBATES GRANDVW1 WINDMILL LHORN_N OGALLALA TESLA TULECNYN CTT_CROS WHIT_RVR ABERNATH SPLAIN1 SPLAIN2 W_CW_345 June 5, 2017 E.S.P. Trimmings Raw Bus These changes appear to be reasonable, but note PH1 to Railhead included, but PH2 is not. June 5, 2017 Reactance E.S.P. Bus

AEEC 0.00006 ABERNATH SALTFORK 0.00001 ALN_CRK BRISCOE 0.00032 TULECNYN COTPLNS 0.00001 WHIT_RVR HRFDWIND 0.00001 WINDMILL PH1 0.00039 RAILHEAD WAKEWE 0.00048 W_CW_345 E.S.P. on the Margin Some of these are reasonable, but note GRANDVW1 is on the margin, SPLAIN1 is close, and PH2 does not qualify while its sister bus did. June 5, 2017 Raw Bus Intuitive Bus Reactance

GRANDVW1 ALIBATES 0.0005 SPLAIN1 WHIT_RVR 0.00051 OGALLALA WINDMILL 0.0006 RAILHEAD CTT_GRAY 0.0006 ROUTE_66 ALIBATES 0.0006 ASTRA WINDMILL 0.00069 LHORN_N TULECNYN 0.0008 PH2 RAILHEAD

0.00085 MIAM1 CTT_GRAY 0.00129 SPLAIN2 WHIT_RVR 0.00143 MARIAH WINDMILL 0.00161 SSPURTWO AJSWOPE 0.00376 E.S.P. Remove Radial: 11 Busses MIAM1 SSPURTWO 1. AJ_SWOPE 2. ALIBATES 3. CTT_CROS

4. CTT_GRAY 5. OGALLALA 6. RAILHEAD 7. TESLA 8. TULECNYN 9. W_CW_345 10. WHIT_RVR 11. WINDMILL June 5, 2017 AJ_SWOPE MARIAH ASTRA PH2 RAILHEAD ROUTE_66 CTT_GRAY ALN_CRK ALIBATES GRANDVW1 WINDMILL LHORN_N OGALLALA

TESLA TULECNYN CTT_CROS WHIT_RVR ABERNATH SPLAIN1 SPLAIN2 W_CW_345 Statistics of Real Time RN LMPs Mean difference = $0.08 Median = $0.00 Max difference = $59.72 Correlation between known Resource Nodes in the proposed hub is very strong, but weaker compared to existing Hubs. A better look would be to compare proposed Hub bus LMPs, but data is not readily available. June 5, 2017 GRAN BRISC COTP DVW HRFD LHOR MARI MIA HB_N HB_ AEEC OE LNS 1 WIND N_N AH M1 PH1 PH2 ORTH WEST AEEC 1.00 BRISCOE 1.00 1.00 COTPLNS

1.00 1.00 1.00 GRANDVW1 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 HRFDWIND 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 LHORN_N 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 MARIAH 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 MIAM1 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 PH1_UNIT1_2 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 PH2_U1_U2 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 HB_NORTH 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.95 1.00 HB_WEST 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.98 1.00 The Abernathy Option Several potential plans would tie the panhandle in to the rest of the system through Abernathy making it an intuitive candidate for a

Hub Bus. PREZ Study Report LP&L Option 4OW Sharyland South Plains June 5, 2017 OGALLALA ABERNATH Recommendation 1. ABERNATH 2. AJ_SWOPE 3. ALIBATES 4. CTT_CROS 5. CTT_GRAY 6. OGALLALA 7. RAILHEAD 8. TESLA 9.

AJ_SWOPE 11. WHIT_RVR 12. WINDMILL June 5, 2017 ALIBATES WINDMILL OGALLALA TESLA TULECNYN CTT_CROS WHIT_RVR TULECNYN 10. W_CW_345 RAILHEAD CTT_GRAY ABERNATH W_CW_345 Risks Panhandle interface shifts? Significant Lubbock upgrade beyond plan 4OW? Additional Load Transfer to ERCOT? June 5, 2017 Questions? Brandon Whittle www.megawattanalytics.com June 5, 2017

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