International commitments June 2015: Sendai Framework for Disaster
International commitments June 2015: Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 July 2015: Third International Conference on Financing for Development adopted the Addis Ababa Action Agenda September 2015: Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development December 2015: Paris Agreement The 2030 Agenda The 2030 Agenda and the SDGs The 2030 Agenda, the SDGs and science The challenges of the 2030 Agenda Heightened complexity The challenge: How to decide when linkages point in different directions
Need a way of measuring impacts to be able to compensate for trade-offs and complement with additional policy options Global models Give a sense of global consistency Provide a reference for national policies But cannot directly guide national policies Energy systems models Modelling for sustainability: from global to national Global physical feasibility sustainability investments GLOBAL IAM Geospatial
electrification National energy systems models National CGE or economywide models GLOBAL CGE or economywide CGE global trade models Global damage cost well-being CLIMATE MODELS: EMISSIONS AND CLIMATE National
sustainable development Policies Integrated assessments; climate, land, energy, water systems (CLEWS) Microsimulation Global models insights National policies A sample A sample Rapid growth in developing countries and poverty eradication are both consistent with sustainability. Energy for all is compatible with sustainable paths, with only marginal Providing
increase in emissions. context Tapping biofuels might reduce emissions but decrease biodiversity. Preventing climate change, enhancing biodiversity and controlling air pollution are all achievable goals. Nuclear energy can contribute but is not a must for arriving at a sustainable development path. Poverty eradication Reduced inequality Higher living standards Food security Protecting the environment Universal access to electricity Renewable and clean energy Affordable and reliable energy Industrialization
Curbing emissions under nationally determined contributions Energy security Genealogy of integrated assessment modelling Sustainable development The food-energy-water nexus National development policies Food, energy and water systems are highly interlinked Often referred to by the term nexus Part of broader development challenge as reflected in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Energy
Food National sustaina ble develop ment policies Water CLEWS An analytical framework and model Energy model Energy for water processing and treatment Energy for water pumping Energy for desalination Water available for hydropower Water for power plant cooling
Water for (bio-) fuel processing Water model Energy for fertilizer production Energy required for field preparation and harvest Biomass for biofuel production and other energy uses Land-use model Water for biofuel crops (rain-fed and irrigated) Water needs for food, feed and fibre crops (rain-fed and irrigated) Greenhouse gas emissions
Precipitation, temperature Climate Addressing complexity Modelling tools Approach Sound, adapted and based on NATIONAL development PRIORITIES. Economywide Socioeconomic impact Integrated Integrated Assessment Energy assessment
System systems system Modelling Electricity for all A suite of models. No single model can cover all relevant issues. Accessible, unrestrained from proprietary specification (open source). User-friendly, communication effective. Tapping research and the knowledge-creation communities. Responding to demands for CAPACITY-BUILDING. BUILDING ANALYTICAL CAPACITY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT POLICIES 2005-2015 20 countries 2015-2017
Bolivia Costa Rica Ghana Kyrgyzstan Mongolia Nicaragua Paraguay Uganda PROJECT SCHEDULE OF ACTIVITIES: CLEWS WORKSHOP I 40 hrs./each S C O P
I N G D A T A G A T H E R I N G WATER MODELLING Data use Scenarios Interpreting WORKSHOP 2
40 hrs./each W O R K A T D I S T A N C E ENERGY MODELLING Data use Scenarios Interpreting WORKSHOP 4 10 hours
WORKSHOP 3 40 hrs./each W O R K A T D I S T A N C E INTEGRATED MODELLING CLEWS Data use Scenarios Interpreting
W O R K A T D I S T A N C E - Insights from modeling - Informing policy debate - Outreach, disseminate
ITERACTIVE MODEL BUILDING 1st year 2nd year P U B L I C A T I O N S BUILDING INSTITUTIONS TO INFORM SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT POLICIES MODELS MODELS ECONOMYWIDE
ENERGY MICROSIMULATION SECTOR MODELS INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT SECTOR MODELS AWARENESS OF MODELLING MECHANICS, POWER AND LIMITATIONS THANK YOU
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