First-principles-based modeling of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) at

First-principles-based modeling of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) at

First-principles-based modeling of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) at mid- and low-latitudes Pulkkinen, A., N. Buzulukova, L. Rastaetter, M. Kuznetsova, A. Viljanen, and R. Pirjola December December 18, 18, 2008, 2008, fall fall AGU, AGU, San San Francisco, Francisco, CA CA 11 Motivation Two-level experimental GIC forecasting system has been running at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center since

February 2008. But the short lead-time Level 2 forecasts have a problem December December 18, 18, 2008, 2008, fall fall AGU, AGU, San San Francisco, Francisco, CA CA 22 Lagrange 1 observations used as boundary conditions for magnetospheric MHD. NASAs Magnetospheric ACE data used. MHD output used to drive geoelectromagnetic induction and GIC code MHD provides only high-latitude

providing currents. GIC at individual nodes of the power grid. GIC forecast file is generated. Magnetospheric MHD model (BATS-R-US) used to model the magnetospheric-ionospheric dynamics. Computations carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. April April 29, 29, 2008, 2008, Space Space Weather Weather Workshop, Workshop, Boulder, Boulder, CO CO 33 Motivation and GIC occur also at mid- and low-latitudes.

Gaunt and Coetzee (2007) December December 18, 18, 2008, 2008, fall fall AGU, AGU, San San Francisco, Francisco, CA CA 44 Low latitude problem Domain not included in 55 magnetospheric MHD The challenge Need information about the near-space current systems generating electromagnetic field fluctuations in the mid- and low-latitudes.

Inclusion of realistic inner magnetospheric non-MHD physics needed. (Challenge 1) Field-aligned currents cannot be assumed to be perpendicular to the ionospheric plane. Need to use more general methods for solving the geomagnetic induction problem. (Challenge 2) December December 18, 18, 2008, 2008, fall fall AGU, AGU, San San Francisco, Francisco, CA CA 66 The solution (Challenge 1) Use Comprehensive Ring Current Model (CRCM) to model the inner magnetosphere. Drive CRCM with global MHD. For details, see poster SM11A1571 by Buzulukova et al.

December December 18, 18, 2008, 2008, fall fall AGU, AGU, San San Francisco, Francisco, CA CA 77 CRCM-BATSRUS one way coupling MHD BATSRUS run at the CCMC MHD T, n MHD B-field KAMELEON KAMELEON interpolation library

interpolation library Equatorial n,T at the CRCM polar boundary B-field at the whole CRCM region electric field potential in the ionosphere Linear interpolation: MHD ionosphere gridCRCM ionosphere grid CRCM polarCRCM potential in the ionospher boundary at the CRCM polar boundary CRCM run Region II Birkeland currents 3-D H+, e- fluxes Self-consistent E-field

Complex Image Method The solution (Challenge 2) j (r ') j (r ') Develop an extended Complex Image Method (CIM) to deal with A ,A arbitrary field-aligned current (z) e orientations. i z Ai = 0 4

Ar = 0 4 j (r ') dV ' r r' V V C j (C r ') dV ' r r '2 p(, (z))ez r C j (C r ') (1)

(2) December December 18, 18, 2008, 2008, fall fall AGU, AGU, San San Francisco, Francisco, CA CA 99 Initial test Drive BATS-R-US MHD with ACE observations for the August 12, 2000 storm event. Drive CRCM with MHD output. Use ionospheric 5-minute resolution output of CRCM with extended CIM to compute the ground magnetic field fluctuations at mid-latitudes. As a first-order approximation, include the magnetic field perturbation due to the ring current via Dessler-Parker-Sckopke relation.

Compare to observations averaged to 5-minute resolution. December December 18, 18, 2008, 2008, fall fall AGU, AGU, San San Francisco, Francisco, CA CA 10 10 Initial results December December 18, 18, 2008, 2008, fall fall AGU, AGU, San San Francisco,

Francisco, CA CA 11 11 Initial results Hours from the beginning of August 11, 2000.18, 2008, December December 18, 2008, fall fall AGU, AGU, San San Francisco, Francisco, CA CA 12 12 Initial results

Hours from the beginning of August 11, 2000.18, 2008, December December 18, 2008, fall fall AGU, AGU, San San Francisco, Francisco, CA CA Quantitative comparisons to follow 13 13 Summary Mid- and low-latitude GIC addressed in terms of coupled CRCM/MHD and extended CIM. Future development includes: a) Inclusion of the effect of an asymmetric ring current.

b) Calculation of actual GIC. December December 18, 18, 2008, 2008, fall fall AGU, AGU, San San Francisco, Francisco, CA CA 14 14

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