Nowcasting, Forecasting and Assimilation of SST and bottom ...

Nowcasting, Forecasting and Assimilation of SST and bottom ...

Feature Oriented Regional Modeling System -- FORMS: An Overview Avijit Gangopadhyay University of Massachusetts Dartmouth Email: [email protected] Funded by NASA and ONR OUTLINE

Feature Oriented Regional Modeling System (FORMS) Concept -- Initialization/Synthesis Methodology Applications to different regions Gulf Stream Front and Ring Analysis

Features in Western North Atlantic Deep Sea region (GSMR)

Gulf Stream Warm Core Rings Cold Core Rings Southern Recirculation Gyre Northern Recirculation Gyre Deep Western Boundary Current

Gangopadhyay et al., 3-part series in 1997: Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Tech. (14) 1314:1365 Coastal region (GOMGB)

Maine Coastal Current NEC Inflow GSC Outflow Jordan Basin Gyre Wilkinson Basin Gyre Georges Basin Gyre Georges Bank Gyre Tidal Mixing Front

Gangopadhyay et al. 2002 (Continental Shelf Res. In Press) Gangopadhyay and Robinson, 2002: DAO 36(2002) 201-232

Table I. List of GOMGB features and selected studies Features Selected Studies Maine Coastal Current (including Great South Channel Outflow) Beardsley et al. (1985), Bisagni et al. (1996), Brooks

(1987, 1990, 1994), Brooks and Townsend (1989), Chapman and Beardsley (1989), Holboke and Lynch (1995), Mavor and Huq (1996), Mountain and Manning (1994), Lynch et al. (1992, 1996, 1997), Lynch (1999), Naimie et al. (1994), Naimi (1995,1996), Smith (1989). Gorges Bank Anticyclonic circulation, Tidal Fronts

Jordan Basin Gyre Wilkinson Basin Circulation Georges Basin Gyre North East Channel Inflow Loder et al. (1992), Butman and Beardsley (1987), Butman et al. (1987), Bisagni et al. (1996), Flagg (1987), Houghton et al. (1982).

Brooks (1987), Pettigrew et al. (1998), Wright et al. (1986), Beardsley et al. (1997). Brown and Beardsley (1978), Brown and Irish (1992, 1993), Brown (1998a), Mountain and Jessen (1987). Brooks, (1985), Wright et al. (1986), Beardsley et al. (1997), Pettigrew et al. (1998), Xue et al. (2000). Brooks (1987), Ramp et al. (1985), Bisagni and Smith (1998)

Abbreviations: GOMGB : Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank MCC GSC TMF JBG WBG GBG

NEC : : : : : : :

Maine Coastal Current Great South Channel Tidal (Mixing) Front Jordan Basin Gyre Wilkinson Basin Gyre Georges Basin Gyre North East Channel

U(x,y,z)=(y){[UT(x)-UB(x)](x,z) + UB(x)} T(x,y,z)=Ta(x,z)+(x,z)(y) where, Ta(x,z)={[T0(x)-Tb(x)](x,z) +Tb} Tss(x,y,Z) = Tsh + (Tsl Tsh) m(,Z)

=tan Where, m is the melding function: m(,Z) = + tanh[(-.Z)/] In general, a coastal current (CC), a front (SSF) and an eddy/gyre (E/G) are represented by:

CC: TM(x, , z) =TMa(x, z)+ M(x, z) M() SSF: Tss(x, y, z) = Tsh (x, z) + (Tsl (x, z) Tsh(x, z)) (, z)

E/G: T(r, z) = Tc (z) - [Tc (z) - Tk (z) ] {1-exp(-r/R)} where, TMa(x, z), Tsh (x, z) and Tc (z) are axis, shelf and core () = (0 W) (, z) = + tanh[(-.Z)/]

Strategy for GOMGB MCC WBG JBG GBG GBAG TMF SSF Inflow/Outflow FORMS Protocol Identify Circulation and Water mass features Regional Synthesis -- Processes from a modeling perspective Synoptic Data sets -- in-situ and satellite

Regional Climatology (Background Circulation) OA (Climatology + Feature Models) Simulation -- Nowcasting/Forecasting FORMS Applications in Different Oceans Western north Atlantic Operational modeling in GOMGB AFMIS-RFAC Strait of Sicily Dynamical analysis

Monterey Bay real-time forecasting with ROMS AOSN-II in summer 2003 -- Upwelling Brazil Current Meander-eddy-Upwelling System Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea Rapid response Chilean Waters Northern Humboldt Current Biophysical modeling Feature oriented methodology is applicable to ALL different

Numerical Models

MOM (Modular Ocean Model) POP (Parallel Ocean Program) ROMS (Regional Ocean Model System) POM (Princeton Ocean Model) MIT GCM HOPS (Harvard Ocean Prediction System) Finite Element / Finite Volume models It is an Initialization and Assimilation Methodology

Strait of Sicily Feature Oriented Regional Modeling Set Up The Brazil Current System Meander-eddy-Upwelling System The Brazil Current Structure The Hardest Work of All!!

SEC IWBC Dynamical Features in BCS Brazil Current (Surface (0-150m) 2 branches Bifurcating SEC around the Abrolhos Bank and Vitoria ridge Pycnocline (150-500m)) IWBC + NADW (DWBC)

Cabo Sao Tome eddy Cabo Frio eddy Vitoria eddy Upwelling regions Instability-generated Vortex dipoles in Santos Bight Fresh water influx in the shelf between the coast and the Brazil Current

Southern California Coastal region The California Current System The Pacific basin-scale ROMS configuration at 50-km spatial resolutions will provide the required boundary

conditions for the regional ROMS off the U.S. West Sea surface temperature simulated by ROMS. The 3-level ROMS domains are displayed. Snapshot of sea surface temperature (left) and surface current (right) simulated by the 1.5-km

ROMS. Model 500m, 1000m, 1500m, and 2000m isobaths are displayed (left). Humboldt Current System The Peru-Chile Current System Shallow water feature models Use of intelligent observations that are

important to resolve the scales and represent the underlying dynamical processes Not only temperature-salinity structure, but include first-order dynamics Process-oriented feature models Upwelling Wind speed and direction at highest available resolution from QuikScat

Mixed-layer depth estimate from MODIS Infer the Ekman Current in the Upper Mixed layer Additional baroclinic currents may be added for coastally trapped waves or alongshore currents Monterey Bay in Summer 2003, Vietnamese shelf in summer 2003, Brazil Current - Cape Frio upwelling region in austral summer 2003. Transient feature models

Coastal filaments, jets, squirts and eddies Automated gradient-detection algorithm (Cayula and Cornillon, 1995) Small scales (1-100 km) and short-life (20-40 days) Spatial and temporal dependence of FM parameters Low vs. high chlorophyll regions (Chan, 1999)

CONCLUSIONS Developing FORMS is a pre-requisite for Synoptic modeling system FORMS is unique for each region Shallow water FORMS are very important for accurate prediction of bio-physically active systems FORMS is independent of the numerical modeling system (POM, ROMS, MOM,

POP, HOPS etc.) OBJECTIVELY BASED FEATURE MODEL Wilkinson basin water masses Brooks June 1982 data

Cluster model of water masses EOF vertical analysis Feature model of vertical temperature and salinity Brooks 1982 June survey in Wilkinson Basin T,S Diagram

CLUSTER MODEL Distance function 2 n 2 n FD T S d

where 2 n Tn Tc / T , S n S c / S , d n d c / d Water mass Ellipsoids

Explained Percent Variance No. of Modes Included The 1997 PRIMER IV Field experiment

To-beanalyzed via Cluster-EOF analysis with NRL-Stennis team Feature tracking in shallow coastal regions

MODIS instrument on Terra and Aqua Resolution ~ 250 meters (1-km globally) Temperature precision 0.3-0.5K Navigational accuracy 50 meters per pixel

Moving mesh algorithm (Rowley and Ginis, 1999) ; Wavelet approach (Liu et al., 2002) Monterey Bay application PCCS? MODIS chlorophyll on July 23, 2002 for southern California from Terra (left) at 1815 GMT, and the same field from Aqua (right) at 2115 GMT. A feature-tracking algorithm that uses the chlorophyll field as tracer will deduce the surface currents, which can be assimilated in the Navys modeling system.

[Courtesy:Ron Vogel, http://www.modis-ocean.gsfc.nasa.gov/whatsnew.html

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