Evolution of Intercontinental connectivity Educause Tempe, Arizona, February 4th 2002 Yves Poppe Dir, Liaison R&E Networks Global Market Agenda Evolution of Transoceanic internet capacity demand and supply Impact of the Telecom recession Future in the making: the optical internet and the Grid? The difficulty of predictions and forecasts In october 1994 Teleglobe inaugurated Cantat-3 with two fiber pairs, capacity of
5gigabit (2x2.5Gb) linking Canada to the UK, Germany, Denmark, Iceland and the Faroe Islands. Doubled the capacity under the atlantic 155mb was earmarked for data Engineering estimated 17years to fill the cable Testnetwork for R&E 1995-1998 183 45 Mb/s (in trial) 155 Mb/s CT-3 Ic eland PTT ATM Netw ork KDD/NTT ATM R&D Network (JAPAN) 34Mb/s Ibaraki, Japan
B-WIN (DFN) Lake Cowic han Pennant Point Teleglobe ATM Test Network Vancouver.BC 45Mb/s 45Mb/s 155 Mb/s CT-3 34 Mb/s
Montreal 45Mb/s DT ATM Network 34Mb/s CANARIE CA-Net-2 Netw ork (CANADA) SWITCH (Switz erland) JAMES 45Mb/s STARTAP
34Mb/s RENATER ATM Network (FRANCE) SIRIU S ATM Netw ork (ITALY) What happened since The internet tsunami took everybody by surprise. Cantat-3 was full in less than 3 years. Five years later cables of 1000 times the capacity of Cantat-3 are being installed. Deregulation and ease of acces to capital created a multitude of new carriers and a cornucopia of transmission capacity. After a peak in early 2000, overcapacity has led to the current telecom meltdown. This in turn now makes it relatively easier and less costly to interconnect national R&E networks and to deploy global networks
such as Teleglobes GlobeSystem. The battle of the Atlantic Capacity coming online Gbps* RFS Level 3/GC (Project Yellow) 320 1,280 TAT-14 (Club) 640 640
FLAG Atlantic-1 (FLAG/GTS) 160 2,560 Hibernia (360networks, Inc.) 1,920 Atlantic Crossing -2 (Global Crossing) 2,560** TyCom Global Network 2,560 Oxygen No Go! Apollo (C&W) 3,200 total 12,160 sep00 apr01 sep01 2Q01 1Q01 1Q02 ------4Q02
* = Design capacity ** = Cancelled, AC-2 joining Level 3 The battle of the Pacific Capacity coming online Gbps* RFS TPC-5 (club) 20 Southern Cross
dec98 nov00 jan 01 apr01 oct01 2Q02? 2Q02 3Q02 2Q03? total 9,560 * = Design capacity ** = april: Tycom joins FLAG aug 8th 01: FLAG withdraws, Tycom continues alone ***= project dropped ****=financing not completed East-Asia cable systems Transpacific cables up to end 2001 TPC-5: 2x2x5=20
China-US: 4x8x2.5=80 Japan-US: 4x16x10=640 (80) PC1: 4x16x10 (80 as of apr 01) SC: 3x16x10= 480 (60) Could there be oversupply? Atlantic supply exceeds conventional demand forecasts: strong downward price pressure ! 14000 12000 Demand (Gbps) - Probe Gbps 10000 8000 Demand (Gbps) - Pioneer 6000 Transatlantic Supply
4000 Transatlantic Design Capacity 2000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 The R&E Community benefits from the cornucopia hardly increasing any
budgets. TransPacific: TRANSPAC network went from 155mb to 2x622mb AARnet buys its own IRU from Australia to Seattle TransAtlantic: SURFnet takes first 2.5gb lambda in service on Jan 10th 2002 linking Netherlight and STARlight UKERNA and Dante will each put 2.5gig connections in service in 1stQ02 CERN will put 2.5gb lambda in service summer 2002 Additional RFQs in progress. Europe: Dante builds Geant with 10gig core with budget foreseen for 2.5gig core Teleglobes approach: GlobeSystem 100 major global markets Advanced services for carriers, ISPs, content providers and corporations
Over 400,000 route miles US$3B investment over 4 years Complementarity cable and satellite Agenda Evolution of Transoceanic internet capacity demand and supply Impact of the Telecom recession Future in the making: the optical internet and the Grid?
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