Διαφάνεια 1

Διαφάνεια 1

4th Conference on Sustainable Urban Mobility CSUM2018 24-25 May, 2018, Skiathos Island, Greece Megatrends a Way to Identify the Future Transport Challenges Vladislav Mara1, Mirjana Bugarinovi1, Eleni Anoyrkati2, Alba Avarello 2 1 University of Belgrade, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, Vojvode Stepe 305, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia 2 Coventry University Enterprises Ltd, Puma Way, Coventry, CV1 2TT, United Kingdom Sponsors: Media Sponsor: With the support of: Acknowledgment The results incorporated in this paper received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 769638, project title: INtentify future Transport rEsearch NeeDs (INTEND) Skiathos Island, GREECE 24-25 May 2018 THE SKIATHOS PALACE HOTEL Contents Introduction Weak signals, trends and megatrends Reviewed literature

Reaching a consensus Results Conclusion Skiathos Island, GREECE 24-25 May 2018 THE SKIATHOS PALACE HOTEL Introduction megatrends lead to serious challenges for the transportation systems transportation practice to adjust its developing routine to the current and future megatrends different characteristics of European regions different impacts of megatrends on transportation systems Skiathos Island, GREECE 24-25 May 2018 THE SKIATHOS PALACE HOTEL Introduction Goal: to reach consensus on the key megatrends for both passenger and freight transportation systems Methodology: review of the existing literature dealing with the megatrends and their implications on both passenger and freight transportation Skiathos Island, GREECE

24-25 May 2018 THE SKIATHOS PALACE HOTEL Weak signals, trends and megatrends Ansoffs concept of weak signals (1975, 1982) trend - innovation and diffusion the most significant characteristics of megatrends: cultural, economic, political and technological changes that have not yet happened; the effects or implications of megatrends are reflected on the whole or almost entire society. Skiathos Island, GREECE 24-25 May 2018 THE SKIATHOS PALACE HOTEL Weak signals, trends and megatrends differences between trends and megatrends: megatrends last longer; megatrends have a more pronounced impact on many areas; it is significantly easier to predict development patterns of certain trends in comparison with the prediction of future development of megatrends. Megatrends those variables, which are not specific to the transport system, but have impacts on it and contribute to shape its development Skiathos Island, GREECE 24-25 May 2018 THE SKIATHOS PALACE HOTEL Reviewed literature literature review of transport studies, projects and papers time perspective of up to 2050 identification of megatrends that may affect both

passenger (PT) and freight transportation (FT) Skiathos Island, GREECE 24-25 May 2018 THE SKIATHOS PALACE HOTEL Reviewed literature EC and TP reports and projects European Commission (2009) TOSCA (FP7, 2011) OPTIMISM (FP7, 2012) FUTRE (FP7, 2012-2014) ERRAC (2014) ALICE (Alliance for logistics innovation through collaboration in Europe, 2014a-e) CIPTEC (H2020, 2015-2018) Mobility4EU (H2020, 2016-2018) WaterborneTP (2016) Skiathos Island, GREECE 24-25 May 2018 THE SKIATHOS PALACE HOTEL Reviewed literature Worldwide forward looking transport projects World Energy Council (2011) Clausen et al. (Fraunhofer IML, Daimler AG, DB Mobility Logistics, 2014) Future Transport 2056 (New South Wales, Australia, 2016) Mohaddes and Sweatman (TRB, US, 2016) IATA (2017) Megatrends Transportation (DoT, Wisconsin, US, 2017) Nissler and Guichard (UNECE ITS, 2017) US DOE (2017) US DOT (2017) Skiathos Island, GREECE 24-25 May 2018

THE SKIATHOS PALACE HOTEL Reviewed literature National projects The Future of Transport (passengers preferences in UK, 2012) Deutsche Post (consequences for the logistics sector, 2012) Rohr et al. (Travel in Britain in 2035, 2016) Aho et al. (Ministry of Transport and Communications, Finland, 2017) Skiathos Island, GREECE 24-25 May 2018 THE SKIATHOS PALACE HOTEL Reviewed literature Academic literature Anoyrkati et al. (2016) Silva et al. (2014) Jeschke (2011) Skiathos Island, GREECE 24-25 May 2018 THE SKIATHOS PALACE HOTEL Reviewed literature Reports from business sector and consultancy firms Ford (2012) PWC (2014a) Stewart et al. (ARUP, 2014) Corwin et al. (Deloitte University Press, 2015) Surrender (Frost & Sullivan, 2015) UITP (2015) DHL (2016) Kautzsch et al. (Oliver Wyman, 2016)

Skiathos Island, GREECE 24-25 May 2018 THE SKIATHOS PALACE HOTEL Reaching a consensus defining the criteria that will allow for the identification of megatrends that have the most significant impact on the future development of passenger and freight transport Skiathos Island, GREECE 24-25 May 2018 THE SKIATHOS PALACE HOTEL Reaching a consensus standard for the Delphi method literature consensus should represent 50 to 70 % agreements adopted at least 70% of the identified literature sources elaborate and describe the impact of that megatrend on passenger or freight transportation matrix listing sources against the megatrends identified in the reviewed literature Skiathos Island, GREECE 24-25 May 2018 THE SKIATHOS PALACE HOTEL Total Key global megatrends in freight transportation [18] [32]

[2] [9] [12] [11] [16] [19] [24] [39] [1] [17] [23] [36] population growth ageing society GDP, economy growth + - + - +

- + - - + + + - + - + + + - + + - + + + 2 9 5 urbanization/megacities

- - + - + - + - + + + - + + 8 changing lifestyles - -

+ - + - + + + - + + - + 8 changing mobility behaviours - - + -

- - + + - - - - - + 4 climate change - + + + + -

+ + - + + + + + 11 energy demand /sources - - - + + + + -

+ + - + + + 9 key resources scarcity Globalization 2.0 migration and internal mobility market regulation trade growth security issues + - + + - + - + +

+ - + + + + + + + - + + - - + + 11 7 - - - -

- - + - - - - - - - 1 - + - + - + - +

+ - - + + + + + + + + - + + + 5 4 7 food and water demand - - -

- - - - - - + - - - - 1 infectious disease and pandemics - - - - -

- - - - - - + - - 1 geopolitical (in)stability - - - - - - -

- - - - + - - 1 Skiathos Island, GREECE 24-25 May 2018 THE SKIATHOS PALACE HOTEL Results a total of 32 megatrends from all sources, which are related to both passenger and freight transportation, are separated and included in our analysis Key megatrends in passenger transportation should be elaborated in at least 19 out of 26 reviewed sources (> 70 %) Key megatrends in freight transportation elaborated in at least 10 out of 14 identified sources (> 70 %) Skiathos Island, GREECE 24-25 May 2018 THE SKIATHOS PALACE HOTEL

Results Key global megatrends in passenger transportation urbanization and megacities (higher population densities; improvements in cities infrastructure; environmental and health risks; PPP models; more sustainable cities); environmental challenges climate change (decrease in carbon emissions; global temperature increase; sea level arise; increased risk of flooding from melting glaciers; adaptation and mitigation policies; development of carbon markets) Skiathos Island, GREECE 24-25 May 2018 THE SKIATHOS PALACE HOTEL Results Key global megatrends in freight transportation environmental challenges climate change; key resources scarcity - shortages and consumption (more constraints on consumptions - resource management; greater demands on scarce resources fossil fuels; development of substitute materials; global privatization of resources; changes in ecosystems use). Skiathos Island, GREECE 24-25 May 2018 THE SKIATHOS PALACE HOTEL Conclusion elaboration of general foresight studies validation of selection based on experts opinions a lower limit of 50% agreement for selecting certain

megatrends for further analysis Analytical Network Process (ANP) to determine the prioritized megatrends (as well as technological advances and political imperatives) for successful implementation and realization of key transport concepts of the future the gaps between technological advances in the transport sector and development prospects of the transport and mobility systems Impact of megatrends on transport research needs will be visually presented by using the Transport Synopsis Tool Skiathos Island, GREECE 24-25 May 2018 THE SKIATHOS PALACE HOTEL Contact Details Vladislav Mara [email protected] University of Belgrade Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering Vojvode Stepe 305, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia

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