2nd Meeting of the Working Group for Analysis of Energy ...

2nd Meeting of the Working Group for Analysis of Energy ...

Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation in the Northeast Asia Region Viet Nam- Country Report By: Dr. Pham Khanh Toan & Nguyen Minh Bao Institute of Energy 23-24 September-Beijing-China Contents 1. Introduction 2. Recent Changes in Energy Sector and Policies 3. Work Progress and Interim Results of LEAP Paths 4. Conclusions and Recommendations 1. Introduction Viet Nam stretches along the east coast of Indochina over a length of 1,600 km between the northern latitudes of 80 and 230. Total land area: 330,000

square kilometers. Shares common borders with the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) in the north, and with Laos and Cambodia in the west. Introduction Population: 2009: 85.8 million (result from the general population census in 01 April 2009). From 1999 to 2009: Population were increased by 9.5 million with an average growth rate of 1.18% per year, reducing nearly 0.5% compared with previous 10 year period (1989-1999). GDP: . Annual average GDP Growth Rate: 7.6% in 1990-2005, and 7.3% in 2005-2009. 2. Recent Changes in Energy Sector and Policies

Current Status and Recent Trends in Energy Sector Total energy consumption in 1990 was 16,760 KTOE and increased to 40,345 KTOE in 2007 with average growth rate of 5.3 percent per year. Total Energy Use by Sector 1990-2007,(including Biomass Energy) Current Status and Recent Trends in Energy Sector In 2007, residential sector consumes 39% of total final energy, followed by industry (36%), transportation (20%), commerce (4%) and agriculture (1%). The share of energy consumption by sector in 2007. PETRO VIETNAM

Import 4.2% Others 1.3% 10.0% Foreign IPP, BOT 10.4% EVN 53.1% VINACOMIN 3.7% JSC 14.6% Private 2.8% Import 3.7%

Others 2.8% HPPs 39.8% Gas turbine 32.8% Oil thermal 2.7% Coal thermal 16.0% Gas thermal 2.3% I mport Diesel I PP/BOT Tua bin kh Gas

turbine Nhit du Oilin thermal Nhit in than Coal thermal Thu in HPP Pmax 15000 20000 15000 13952 12636 11286

10187 9255 8283 7408 5655 5000 6552 10000 16048 20000 10000 5000

0 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 18%

90000 86948 80000 17% 75955 68699 16.9% 70000 16% 60000 53647 15.2% 15%

60533 14.7% 50000 13.9% 40000 14.5% 41275 14% 46790 13.4% 31137 36410 30000 13.5% 13.4%

13% 12.8% 27040 12% 20000 10000 0 2000 Power Gen.-GWh Growth Rate 11% 10.6% 10% 2001 2002

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 10 Volume of transmission network as of 2009 3438 km 8497 km 16/7500 MVA 119/19094 MVA

12145 km 746/25862 MVA Rate of rural electrification as of end of 2009 -100% districts have electricity from national grid or local system - 97.6% communes (8880/9101 communes); and - 95,1% rural households have electricity from grid (13.95/14.67 mill. hh) 11 Viet Nams Energy Policy National Energy Saving & Target In April 2006, the Prime Minister of Viet Nam signed Decision No. 79/2006/QD-TTg approving the EE&C program for the period 2006-2015. The target of the program is to save 3 to 5 percent of total national energy consumption over the period 20062010 and 5 to 8 percent in period 2011-2015. Viet Nams Energy Policy National Energy Efficient Use Policies In July 2010, the Law on Energy Conservation and Efficient Use was passed by the National Assembly. The Law includes 12 chapters, 48 articles to institutionalize policies on national energy resources, energy security, environment protection and meeting demand of socio-economic

development. The Law specifies the responsibilities of sectors with high energy saving potential such as industry, transport, service and residential. The Law stipulated that large energy-consuming industries and buildings have to report on energy consumption and plans to improve efficiency, and to designate internal energy managers responsible for energy-efficiency work. Viet Nams Energy Policy Target Sectors for Promoting Energy Efficiency: Three sectors account for about 95% of total final energy consumption, with high potential for energy efficiency: Industry: Consumption grew from 4,663 KTOE in 1990 to 14,359 KTOE in 2007, annual growth rate of 6.8% per year, accounting for 27.8% of total energy consumption in 1990 and increased to 35.6% in 2007. Transportation: consumption grew from 1,413 KTOE in 1990 to 8,671 KTOE in 2007, annual growth rate of 11.3% per year. Residential: Household use of modern energy (such as LPG and electricity) has average growth rate of 16.3% per year during 19902007. Viet Nams Energy Policy Main Measurements for Energy Efficiency in Target

Sectors a, Industrial Sector: - Renewal and renovation of existing equipment and facilities. - Selecting the suitable measures for energy use management. - Planning access to energy-efficient equipments, modern production lines. - Select high efficient technologies for new power plants. b, Transport Sector: - Means of transportation must comply with the technical standards - Improvement and promotion of using public transport system. - Development and using clean and other substitution fuels. c, Residential and Commercial Sector: - Energy efficient use in buildings, lighting systems and residential sectors. - Introduction of energy-saving appliances, renewable energy in households and commercial buildings, along with management measurements. Viet Nams Energy Policy National Policies in Nuclear Energy In January 2006, the Prime Minister approved Sstrategy to apply nuclear energy for peaceful purposes by 2020. In April 2008, the Institute of Energy prepared an Investment Report on construction of nuclear power plants in Ninh Thuan province. The Investment Report of the first nuclear power plant project in Phuoc Dinh and Vinh Hai, Ninh Thuan province, 4000 MW, was approved by the National Assembly in

November 2009. At each site, two nuclear units with capacity of 1000 MW each, operation anticipated in 2020. Viet Nams Energy Policy National Policies in Nuclear Energy In June 2010, the Prime Minister approved Orientation planning for nuclear energy development up to the year 2030. Three phases of NPP development: - The first phase (by 2015): Approval of investment project, selecting sites and contractors, and training the human resource; Preparing mechanisms, policies on for project construction and management. - The next five year stage (by 2020), the first unit of the Ninh Thun Nuclear Power Plant 1 (1000MW) will be finished and put into operation by 2020. The second plant will also be built during this period. Viet Nams Energy Policy National Policies in Nuclear Energy - The phase 3: 2020-2030, next nuclear power plants will be built According to the development orientation, about eight sites for power plants located in five provinces of Ninh Thuan, Binh Dinh, Phu Yen, Ha Tinh and Quang Ngai.

- Up to 2030: Total NPP capacity will be 8,000 MW by 2025 and 15,000 MW by 2030, accounting for about 10 percent of the total capacity of power system. 2. Work Progress and Interim Results of LEAP Paths Introduction In EASS Project, LEAP was used as a tool for energy demand projection, and development of alternative energy scenarios addressing climate change problems. This section will provide the progress and interim results of LEAP Paths including: Methodology and Data Energy Demand Structure Key Assumptions Interim results of LEAP Paths. Methodology and Data Energy demand was constructed and projected for the sectors such as industry, transport, agriculture, residential and commercial sectors . In each sector, energy consumption was broken down in to subsectors and projected based on driving activities and energy

intensities. Driving activities were chosen based on the development plans or strategies of subsectors. Energy intensities were selected based on the available data from the researches and recent surveys. Nuclear capacity scenarios were developed based on the programs of the country. Energy Demand Structure Urban Cooking Lighting Refrigeration Residential Air Conditioners Rural Cooking Lighting Refrigeration Air Conditioners

Energy Demand Structure Blast Furnaces Iron and Steel Heat Electricity Industry Elec. Arc Furnaces Cement Rotary Kilns Electricity Clinker Product Cement Product Vertical Kilns Clinker Product Cement Product

Energy Demand Structure Coal Kilns Brick Making Industry Rice Husk Kilns Pulp & Paper Pulp Heat Electricity Paper Others Heat Electricity Energy Demand Structure Passenger

Transport Freight Others Road Bus Car Motorbike Railway Train Aviation Air plane Road Truck Railway

Train Waterway Boat Maritime Vessel Energy Demand Structure Irrigation Agriculture Electric Pump DO Pump Land Preparation Sea Catching Mechanized rate

Mechanized rate Tractors Ships Key Assumptions GDP: Viet Nams GDP is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 6.9%, 7.2% and 7.0% in the periods of 2005-2010, 20112020 and 2021-2030 respectively in the base case scenario. Period 2006-2010 20112020 Annual Growth 6.9% Rate Population Growth Assumption 7.2% 20212030 7.0% Year

Growth Rate 2000-2010 1.1% 2010-2020 1.0% 2020-2030 0.7% Urbanization rate: 44.5% in 2030 Key Assumptions Nuclear Power Plant Development Scenarios Updated Unit: MW 2020 2025 2030

Minimum Nuclear Scenario 1,000 4,000 6,000 BAU Nuclear Scenario 1,000 6,000 11,000 Maximum Nuclear Scenario 1,000 8,000 15,000 Interim Results

Final Energy Demand by Fuels (KTOE) 2005 2010 2015 Biomass 7,450 6,375 6,093 Coal 6,072 10,610 13,980 18,350 Diesel 5,688

8,089 11,652 16,860 Electricity 3,933 6,841 10,602 16,087 Gasoline 2,708 3,951 5,815 8,539 Jet Kerosene

432 658 1,014 1,562 310 370 462 597 896 100 1,605 1,410 554 2,145 2,072 1,023

2,828 Kerosene LPG Natural Gas FO 2020 2025 5,987 6,078 22,827 23,854 23,050 12,199 2,346 808 2,945 4,001 1,597 2,274 3,739 4,752

AGR.% (05-30) 6,602 - 0.48 2030 28,704 6.41 34,027 7.42 33,130 8.90 17,381 7.72 3,524 8.76

1,104 5.21 5,371 3,133 6,053 7.43 14.77 5.45 Interim Results Final Energy Demand by Sectors (KTOE) 2030 AGR.% (0530) Residentia l 14,532 15,034 15,618 16,411 17,188 18,259

0.92 Industry 9,719 16,248 23,042 32,620 43,703 59,291 7.50 Transport 7,169 10,438 15,375 22,721 32,891 Agricultur e 1,382 1,855 2,523 3,401 4,339 Commerci al 1,629 2,281 3,382 5,017 7,371 47,759 7.88 5,543

5.71 10,847 7.88 2005 Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 34,431 45,856 59,939 80,170 105,492 141,698 5.82 Interim Results Residential: Final Energy Demand by Sub-sectors (KTOE) 2005

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 AGR.% (05-30) Urban 2,334 3,056 3,965 5,123 6,474

8,153 5.13 Rural 12,198 11,977 11,653 11,288 10,713 10,106 -0.75 Total 14,532 15,034 15,618 16,411 17,188 18,259 0.92 Interim Results Industry: Final Energy Demand by Sub-sectors (KTOE) 2020 2025 2030 AGR.% (05-30)

2005 2010 2015 Iron and Steel 363 1,715 3,059 4,430 5,522 6,642 12.3 Cement 3,160 5,238

5,707 6,246 6,494 6,743 3.1 Brick Making 2,393 Pulp and 353 Paper 2,895 4,243 6,220 9,024 13,092 7.0 579 949 1,565 1,869 2,174

7.5 Others 3,450 5,822 9,084 14,160 20,794 30,641 9.1 Total 9,719 16,248 23,042 32,620 43,703 59,291 7.5 Interim Results Industry: Final Energy Demand by Fuels (KTOE) 2005 2010

2015 Biomass 1,427 1,034 1,518 Coal 4,777 8,900 11,823 Diesel 265 380 2020 2,227 3,225 2030 4,671

15,701 19,658 24,928 523 720 Electricity 1,870 3,527 Kerosene 12 15 18 22 LPG 109 309 495 770 Natural Gas 100 554

1,023 1,159 1,528 1,966 FO 2025 5,675 944 1,237 9,047 13,364 19,921 27 31 AGR.% (05-30) 4.9 6.8

6.4 9.9 3.9 1,110 1,583 11.3 1,597 2,274 3,133 14.8 2,535 3,101 3,787 4.9

Interim Results Transport: Final Energy Demand by Sub-sectors (KTOE) 200 AGR.% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 5 (05-30) Passenger 3332 5145 8028 12525 19051 28973 9.0 Freight 6.6 Other Total 3531 4870 6759 9382 12734 17284 307 423

587 815 1106 1501 6.6 7169 10438 15375 22721 32891 47759 7.9 Interim Results Transport: Final Energy Demand by Fuels (KTOE) 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 AGR.% (05-30) Diesel 3,723 5,406 7,959 11,805 17,239 25,352

8.0 Gasoline 2,708 3,951 5,815 8,539 12,199 17,381 7.7 Jet Kerosene 432 Residual Fuel Oil 307 Total 658 1,014 1,562 2,346 3,524 8.8 423 1,106

1,501 6.6 587 815 7,169 10,438 15,375 22,721 32,891 47,759 7.9 Interim Results Electricity Generation: Output by Fuels -BAU (KTOE) 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

2030 769 1,762 3,620 6,323 9,241 14,927 Hydro 1,845 2,732 3,341 4,347

5,776 8,210 Natural Gas 1,770 1,752 1,934 1,953 2,568 2,930 Nuclear - - -

527 3,080 5,473 Diesel 73 18 4 2 140 284 26 20

4,597 6,548 8,925 Coal FO Total - - 19 16 13,172 20,685 31,556 Interim Results Electricity Generation: Global Warming Potential (Mil. Tone CO2e)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 BAU 21.9 32.3 48.7 75 105.6 164.2 Maximum Nuclear 21.9 32.3 48.7 75 95.4 144.3 Minimum Nuclear 21.9 32.3 48.7 75 115.9 189.0 4. Conclusion and Recommendation Conclusions As shown above, an interim result was achieved based on the updated data on energy, economics and main driving activities. Energy demand of residential, industry, and transport

sectors was broken down in to sub-sectors and end-uses. Energy demand was projected based energy consumption indexes and driving activities referred from the development strategies of sectors and subsectors. GHG Mitigation Scenarios were developed based on the BAU, maximum and minimum scenarios on nuclear power development. Recommendation As the first steps, we initially restructured the LEAP Dataset for residential, industry and transport that each sector was divided in sub-sectors and end-uses. Moreover, the GHG Mitigation Scenarios were also developed only on supply side based on BAU, Minimum and Maximum nuclear power development paths. Therefore, these is still room for next steps of AES Project, including: Development of alternative energy scenarios on the demand side including energy efficiency, fuels substitution, and demand-side renewable energy to provide energy services and reduce GHG emissions. Evaluation of the costs for CO2 emissions abatement through different energy efficient policies and measures. Thank you very much

Recently Viewed Presentations

  • October is Disability Awareness Month

    October is Disability Awareness Month

    Clifford Beers publishes his autobiography, A Mind That Found Itself, advocating for change in mental institutions. A year after the publication, the National Committee for Mental Hygiene is formed to advocate for changes to the mental health system. 1915. Dr....
  • Technology in Precalculus - Cabrillo College

    Technology in Precalculus - Cabrillo College

    Technology in Precalculus The Ambiguous Case of the Law of Sines & Cosines Lalu Simcik Cabrillo College Simplify & Expand Resources What if, on day one of precalculus, students could factor polynomials like: By typing: roots([ 1 2 -5 -6])...
  • 3 Days of Peaceand Music! Woodstock Music Festival

    3 Days of Peaceand Music! Woodstock Music Festival

    He donned a Smokey-the-Bear suit and armed himself with a bottle of seltzer and a rubber shovel. Then he and the barefooted, long haired Hog Farmers flew into John F. Kennedy International Airport. "We're the hippie police," Gravy announced as...
  • Irish Days, Mauritian Nights

    Irish Days, Mauritian Nights

    by Tudor Rees and Harley Usill (1955) urged prohibitive laws to be retained for good of society ... He spent lavishly on dandy clothes, and a pink shirt was his plumage; later, he drove a white Rolls Royce ... A...
  • PHPs for NC Medicaid Managed Care - North Carolina

    PHPs for NC Medicaid Managed Care - North Carolina

    PHPs for NC Medicaid Managed Care. Statewide contracts. AmeriHealth Caritas North Carolina, Inc. Blue Cross and Blue Shield of North Carolina, Inc. UnitedHealthcare of North Carolina, Inc. WellCare of North Carolina, Inc. Regional contract - Regions 3 & 5. Carolina...
  • UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS, AMHERST  Department of Electrical and

    UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS, AMHERST Department of Electrical and

    Background ~60 Amateur rocket hobbyists from 15 countries 27 foot tall rocket Max velocity ~mach 5.2 (3440 mph) Max altitude >100km (100km = "space") Powered with sucrose fuel (sugar) Low budget volunteer program Our design project A sensor control system,...
  • From Knowing-How To Knowing-That: Acquiring Categories By Word

    From Knowing-How To Knowing-That: Acquiring Categories By Word

    From Knowing-How To Knowing-That: Acquiring Categories By Word of Mouth Stevan Harnad (UQAM & U. Southampton) Knowing-How vs. Knowing-That Justified True Belief Gettier problems Chess vs. 'schmess' Goodman's blue/grue Wittgenstein on implicit and explicit rule-following Darwinian Grounding 'biologizes' our know-how...
  • Providing Safe Food

    Providing Safe Food

    Label food with a use-by date and time, and reheating and service instructions. 7-10. Off-Site Service. Instructor Notes. Delays from the point of preparation to the point of service increase the risk that food will be exposed to contamination or...